Twenty reminders about Brexit that many MPs, Ministers and Shadow Ministers seem to have forgotten.
The full benefits of the European Single Market are only available as a member of the Single Market.
Single Market membership requires acceptance of all
Customs Union alone does not solve the Northern Ireland/Ireland border issue.
An invisible border for Northern Ireland is impossible without Customs Union and Single Market for goods.
Customs Union and Single Market for goods is available for Northern Ireland, but only as an exception, reflecting the special status of it and the
Customs Union and Single Market just for goods is not available for the whole of the UK (it is cherry-picking).
Customs Union and membership of the Single Market is available for the whole of the UK (but see 1 & 2).
Customs Union and Single Market is the least economically damaging form of Brexit.
Customs Union and Single Market is still economically much worse than EU membership.
Customs Union and Single Market is also democratically much worse than EU membership, and potentially extremely unstable.
There will be no Withdrawal Agreement without agreement on the Northern Ireland/Ireland Border.
Parliament can decide to stop Brexit itself, or require a referendum on the Withdrawal Agreement with an option to remain as a condition for it to be ratified.
Whatever happens, the UK is likely to need an extension to the Article 50’s 2 years and should be preparing to request that now.
It will not be possible to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement between finalising it and Brexit day. It is not in EU27’s interests to do so.
There is next to no chance of the UK rejoining the EU for at least 10 years, whatever the form of Brexit. It will not be politically sellable for the EU27 leaders.
The EU27 have no interest in redesigning the Single Market, Freedom of Movement, the EEA or the Customs Union, or amending European Union treaties, to suit a leaving or ex-Member State, whether or not it is in the EEA or EFTA.
There is no “Jobs First” Brexit (see 8 & 9).
The UK Government saying “Trust us” no longer works, either for the EU27 or the UK population.
A change of Prime Minister, government or a General Election will not change any of the things above (though it may well change a lot else).🔷
(This piece was first published as a Twitter thread and turned into the above article with the purpose of reaching a larger audience. It has been minorly edited and corrected.)