Don’t listen to the Brexiters: after Donald Tusk’s response to Theresa May’s request of an extension of Article 50, a People’s Vote is probably the only viable outcome to Brexit.
The very tricky strategy of the People’s Vote campaigners — i.e. that all other options have been exhausted and the People’s Vote to remain the last standing option vs No-Deal — could very well succeed as we get closer to 29 March.
Theresa May’s Brexit deal 3.0 will very likely be defeated ‘again’ when she brings it back to the House of Commons next week. And as the President of the EU Council Donald Tusk said “A short extension will be possible conditional on a positive vote in House of Commons”, the short extension of Article 50 will then not be granted.
Faced with no extension and a No-Deal fast approaching, MPs will have to choose among the final remaining options.
Theresa May’s Brexit deal 4.0? No way. Labour’s customs union deal? No way. A General Election? Definitely not.
The final three options would then be: a revokation of Article 50, a People’s Vote or simply leaving with No-Deal.
Because a revokation of Article 50 would mean no Brexit, it probably will not pass.
Just hours before the 29 March deadline, MPs will therefore face the last two options: a People’s Vote vs No-Deal.
Since we know there is no majority for No-Deal in Parliament, the only viable option will be a People’s Vote, which Labour would then likely be supporting.
If the People’s Vote option is passed in Parliament, a Special EU Council meeting could then take place on 28 or 29 March where the EU27 would very certainly grant the UK a long extension of Article 50 in order for the country to organise a second referendum.
Remember that today, Donald Tusk did not say that a long extension was out of the question. It is not on the table right now, but it has not been ruled out.
What about Theresa May? Would she then resign? She is too much of a control-freak, power-clinging, power-thirsty and totalitarian type of politician, a populist who has shown on various occasions that she doesn’t mind/care negotiating U-turns when things don’t go her way. She would certainly want to remain Prime Minister to make sure her deal is on the ballot paper.🔷
Liked this story?
Found it useful?
Here’s what you can do next:
(This is an original piece, first published by the author in PoliticsMeansPolitics.com. | The author writes in a personal capacity.)