Charlie Mullins on why Boris Johnson must avoid a no-deal to prevent a recession at all costs, or it might well spell the end of his premiership.

First published in August 2019.

There is much that is unknown about what is going to happen with the future of the UK as far as Brexit is concerned, and it seems everyone has their own theory, albeit that some are quite clearly bonkers!

But there is one thing that I am 100% certain about and that is should we be railroaded into a no-deal Brexit there will be a recession, and this is something that must be avoided at all costs.

Whatever the price, it must be paid, because the alternative will (once again) smash our economy for a decade or more.

We are half way through Q3, and if things keep going as they did last quarter, it is recession on. And if anyone hasn’t noticed the High Street is getting massacred out there, with weekly closures, insolvencies, desperate attempts to renegotiate rents, and pleas to Government for business rate relief.

To be honest, avoiding recession is going to be a big ask already, let alone if we tumble out of the EU on the third time of trying, with no-deal to cushion our fall, while a trade deal is stitched together. And when you are in recession chucking money about like some of the promises that I am hearing ain’t going to be so easy either.

But it is not all bad news. Since as I have been saying for ages, unlike the bone-heads of the ERG, Boris is no fool. And despite what he is telling the EU, he will not allow a no-deal because he knows that his future relies on things working out, and a recession spells curtains for Bojo’s residence in Number 10.🔷

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[This piece was originally published on the Pimlico Plumbers blog and re-published in PMP Magazine on 13 August 2019. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]

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