New polls between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden continue to show a solid lead for the former vice president, however the distance between the two is narrowing.

First published in August 2020.

The timeline

A timeline of the average voter favorability toward Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and incumbent Donald Trump shows how, head-to-head, Biden has held a significant lead over Trump for all of 2020.

Over the last couple of months, Biden has enjoyed one of his largest favorability leads over Trump, averaging around 7-10 percentage points higher than the current president. Even when Biden wasn’t the favorite to win the Democratic nomination in January and February, he still held a sizable lead over Trump.

As of August 15, Biden’s average lead over Trump was around 8%. While that’s still a large gap, it is starting to trend in Trump’s favor as the country approaches the general election in November. The pandemic, protests and economic crisis in the U.S. have certainly taken their toll on the incumbent’s approval, however Trump has certainly had enough time to swing voter favorability ever-so-slightly back in his favor.

The campaign is also hoping the Republican National Convention ending Thursday serves to further bring the Republican party together under a vision led by Trump.

Percentage of voters who would vote for each candidate in 2020. / Statista

Key demographics

Highlighting different demographics within a few selected polls gives an insight into where each candidate is leading among U.S. voters.

In August poll data from CBS/YouGov, CNN and NPR/PBS/Marist, Biden has considerable leads among women voters and non-white voters with an average of 57% and 68%, respectively, saying they would vote for Biden if the election were today.

Trump has considerable leads with male voters and white voters with an average of 51% support from each. Non-college educated voters also favor Trump significantly more than Biden.

Newest polls show a steady stream of support for both candidates with different demographics. White, non-college educated men make up the bulk of Trump’s continued support, while both white and non-white women are proving to be a solid rock of support for Biden’s campaign. Both sides will look to make up ground with these demographics in key battleground states as the election draws nearer.

Percentage of voters by demographic who would vote for each candidate if the election were today. / Statista

Average lead

New polls from major polling organizations show Joe Biden still leading the race over Trump in the general election. An ABC/Washington Post poll shows a favorable 10% lead for Biden, while a CNN poll shows a slimmer 4% lead for Biden.

Approval ratings for Trump have been rising over the past month. They fell sharply after Black Lives Matter protests broke out at the end of May following the murder of George Floyd but have picked back up as fears about COVID-19 lessen. Biden’s numbers have remained steady even after he announced Kamala Harris as his running mate.

New polls show many voters around the country look favorably upon Harris’s selection.

As the general election battle starts heating up, COVID-19 outbreaks are still popping up in the country as school resumes and businesses reopen. Biden has started ramping up advertising campaigns and giving regular virtual addresses about the virus and about his platforms, while Trump has resumed daily press conferences on a variety of topics.

Percentage of voters who would vote for each candidate if the election were today. / Statista

[This piece is a compilation from stats first published here, here, and here in Statista & written by Willem Roper, Editor at Statista.]

(Cover: White House portraits.)

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