It’s getting to the stage now where we get 56% for Yes in an opinion poll and it scarcely counts as news.
First published in December 2020.
An opinion poll from Ipsos MORI which was commissioned by STV was published which placed support for independence at 56% once don’t knows and undecideds are excluded. It is the 15th poll in a row to show majority support for independence.
Even when don’t know and undecideds are not excluded this poll places support for independence at 53%, don’t knows are on 6%, whereas opposition to independence struggles in at a paltry 41%.
The poll also shows that the SNP is on track for winning a majority. The SNP is set to hoover up 55% of the constituency vote and 47% of the constituency list vote. A seat projection based on this poll gives the SNP 73 seats, the Conservatives 27, Labour 19 and the Greens and the Lib Dems 5 each. This would give pro-independence parties 78 out of the 129 seats in the parliament versus just 51 for parties opposed to independence. That is a solid and convincing majority by anyone’s standards.
We are getting to the point where there is no need, I think we might as well, to do polls on Scottish independence since the established majority for Yes has been confirmed so many times. Let’s just move on as quickly as possible to the final one where the poll sample is the entire electorate of Scotland and then from that on to independence and an escape from the dysfunctional and damaging mess of Brexshit.
None of the new fringe parties, whether the pro-independence SIP or George Galloway’s anti independence vanity vehicle, appear to be registering with voters outside their respective social media bubbles. Unless something changes dramatically between now and May next year, the SNP and the Greens are the only pro-independence parties which have any hope at all of wining any seats in the next Scottish parliament.
It’s been a good week, there’s a £500 thank you bonus for NHS workers, which the Conservatives are shamefully refusing to make tax free. There’s a vaccine against Covid to be rolled out starting next week, meaning that we can dare to hope that an end to the pandemic is starting to come into sight.
The Tories are trying to take the credit for it, and are claiming it’s due to Brexit that the UK has approved the vaccine. This is a lie. The UK is still in the transition period and EU law still applies. However EU rules allow for the early authorisation of a vaccine during times of emergency like a global pandemic. And far from being a British triumph this is a vaccine which was developed by Turkish migrants in Germany and which is manufactured in Belgium. But that won’t stop the same people who whined about masks and lockdown trying to lay claim to it in the name of British nationalism.
And now there’s the 15th poll in a row for independence. 2020 has been a horrible, horrible year in so many ways, but we have good reason to hope that 2021 is going to be a whole lot better. No wonder the British nationalists on social media are raging. You can hear the sound of union jack dummies being spat out from here to wherever it is that they buy their copies of the Daily Express from – a rag which they like to tell themselves is an actual newspaper. Belief in Brexit and the Tories not being the biggest of their delusions.
Most importantly of all the potential end to the pandemic means that there will be an end to the tragedy of losing loved ones to this terrible disease, but it also means that the economy and jobs can start to recover, and that we can look forward to a liberation from social isolation and start to meet up again with our families and friends, to chat, to laugh, to hug and kiss, and to be human again.
For an independence movement that has pretty much been frozen it means that we can look forward to doing that face to face, one-on-one campaigning and persuasion that the grassroots movement does best. We’ve seen support for independence surge to 56% even though we’ve not been able to campaign. Now that the SNP’s National Executive Committee has been taken by party members who favour a more robust approach to the pursuit of independence and we can look forward to the brakes coming off the grassroots movement. There’s going to be no stopping us. 2021 is going to be the year that Scottish independence ceases to be a beautiful dream and starts to become a reality.🔷
Wee Ginger Dug, also known as Paul Kavanagh. Blogger.
- Paul Kavanagh is the author of Barking up the Right Tree | Vagabond Voices
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