The first case of Covid-19 in the UK was reported 312 days ago on 31 January 2020. Since then, 1,737,960 cases, and 61,434 deaths, have been reported. A question many are now asking is, ‘have we reached another turning point yet?’, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in December 2020.

The data remain exceedingly difficult to analyse in terms of knowing how to accurately answer this question.

The trajectories of the different elements of the Covid-19 data are giving mixed messages. Cases appear to be falling, e.g., sadly 189 people lost their lives in the last 24 hours, decreasing for the third day running. However, the number of deaths in the last 14 days, at 6,208, is the 11th day in a row that number has exceeded 6,200.

(The data for deaths, reported above, each following a reported positive test result for Covid-19 within 28 days of their death.)

The same Government data indicate there have been 211,751 new cases reported in the past 14 days, 31% fewer than the 14-day figures reported on 24 November. Today’s trendline chart, and headline UK Covid-19 data, gives a picture of the ‘journey’ thus far. It cannot be said enough, the future is in our hands: a few more months restrictions should make a world of difference to where we will be when the vaccine rolls out more fully. That is probably the best way to answer the question (‘have we reached another turning point yet?’) for the moment?

UK Covid-19 headline data, reported on 7 December 2020:

  • 14,718 positive tests
  • 189 more deaths in the last 24 hours
  • 1,438 hospital admissions (reported as of 03/12)
  • 14,556 hospital in-patients (reported as of 03/12)
  • 1,274 patients on ventilation beds (reported as of 04/12)
  • 211,751 new cases reported in the last 14 days according to government data.

Since the first reported UK case, at the end of January 2020, there have been 1,737,960 cases of coronavirus in the UK, and according to today’s government figures 61,434 people have lost their lives.

However, these data include only those who have died within 28 days of testing positive; other measures suggest the number of deaths is higher: 69,752 being reported today as “the total number of deaths of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday, 20 November 2020.”🔷

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 7 December 2020. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]

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