Covid-19 has claimed another 915 lives in the UK in the past 24 hours. That’s 31,742 deaths in 28 days, and 110,250 deaths since the first reported case just over a year ago, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in February 2021.

Despite these data there is now a growing sense of optimism. Infections are falling, albeit from very high levels. Coupled with this, the roll-out of the vaccines against coronavirus should be celebrated. In particular, the fact that 501,957 people have now completed the full, recommended, course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and that 10,490,487 people in total have had one vaccination.

Today’s Data in Focus

Today’s data indicates the grim and sad fact that 915 people have died in the last 24 hours in the UK. This means that 15,670 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days.  

In addition, 31,742 people have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days. This important data measure has fallen today which could be a sign that the number of deaths reported are also beginning to decrease.

The overall situation, however, remains perilously balanced – with 20,634 new cases in the last 24 hours and 348,814 new cases reported in the last 14 days. The fall in these data continues – but the decrease is clearly dependent on a number of factors. These include, the rigour, and speed of implementation of government restrictions, people’s attitudes, and behaviours in response to the rules, the transmissibility and impact of Covid-19 variants, and the rollout and efficacy of the vaccines.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

Most infections are believed to occur as a result of infected people spewing large droplets and small particles (aerosols) when they cough, talk or breathe. This is why the recommendations, advice and measures directed by SAGE scientists are so vitally important – to reduce the possibility of virus transmission.

Seventy-sixth SAGE meeting on Covid-19, 14 January 2021:

“Vaccines are not 100% effective, and there will not be 100% coverage. The relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) could lead to a further epidemic wave if it is not done cautiously. The risk associated with a further wave is reduced if there is high vaccine coverage, particularly amongst the most vulnerable groups, and if community prevalence and hospital occupancy are reduced to low levels before relaxation happens. Any changes should be gradual and carefully monitored.”

Latest health care data indicate that 31,670 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 2 February), and 3,625 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 3 February).  

These data continue to be ‘alarming’ and are having a severe impact on the health and wellbeing of our healthcare staff. This aspect must never be overlooked, and it is clearer than ever that our NHS and care services will be now changed forever as the result of this pandemic. Too many hospitals needing to be upgraded, or rebuilt, too many healthcare resources requiring a radical rethink, a workforce (as a whole) that has gone through an experience not witnessed to this extent since the two World Wars, and even then perhaps not with such widespread impact and intensity.

The Full Data

The 14-day UK data chart is provided below.

14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Trend Lines 04-February-2021

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 4 February 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 20,634 (↗️ +1,432) positive tests in the last 24 hours
  • 915 (↘️ -407) deaths in the last 24 hours
  • 3,892,459 (↗️ +20,634) total positive cases (since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020)
  • 110,250 (↘️ +915) total deaths within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 4 February 2021)
  • 2,375 (↗️ -276) hospital admissions (last reported 31 January)
  • 31,670 (↘️ -1,181) hospital in-patients (last reported 2 February)
  • 3,625 (↘️ -13) patients on ventilation beds (last reported 3 February)

People vaccinated: (up to and including 3 February 2021)

  • 💉 10,490,487 (↗️ +469,016) first dose vaccines
    (i.e. 19.92% of the adult population)
  • 💉 501,957 (↗️ +2,995) second dose vaccines – fully vaccinated
    (i.e. 0.95% of the adult population)

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 29 January 2021)

  • 0.7 to 1.1 with a daily infection growth rate range of -5% to 0%

Last 28 days:

  • 1,003,045 new cases 🦠
  • 31,742 new deaths

Days since:

  • 371 days since the first reported UK case
  • 335 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes: 112,660 – Registered up to Friday 22 January 2021.  

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 4 February 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]