Dr Jha is not at all pessimistic about COVID and 2021. Here is why.

First published in February 2021.

We will likely have about 400 million doses of Moderna/Pfizer in the United States by the end of June. Enough to vaccinate 80% of adults.

And that means a much better summer.

Of course, we will likely also have Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, and Novavax too.

So, by the time summer arrives, we will have way more vaccines than people, including for kids who will likely get vaccinated over the summer, if not before.

That’s supply.

What about distribution?

Distribution problems were real in December and January. They are largely getting fixed now.

So, I see no difficulties with us vaccinating 2-3 million people per day as we get into March-April. And vaccinated 150-200 million by July 1.

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What could go wrong with this scenario?

Pfizer/Moderna both suffer big production problems AND Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, and Novavax don’t deliver.

It seems way, way unlikely.

Summer BBQ with friends? | Wikimedia/Seasameslo Winsg

The next couple of months may be very tough (because of the variants), but by mid-spring things will start to be looking better.

And if by summer some things won’t be back to “normal”, like large indoor gatherings, backyard BBQs among vaccinated friends and family might be safe and effective.  

Dr Ashish K. Jha, Physician, health policy researcher. Dean of the School of Public Health, Professor of Health Services, Policy and Practice, Brown University, Rhode Island.

[This piece was first published as a Twitter thread and turned into the above article on 6 February 2021 with the purpose of reaching a larger audience. It has been minorly edited and corrected, and published with the author’s consent. | The author of the tweets writes in a personal capacity.]

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