Another 230 deaths in the last 24 hours – a significant fall, even though such a decrease is usual at the weekend. 27,536 people have now sadly lost their lives because of the coronavirus in just 28 days – an average of 983 deaths a day, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in February 2021.

As of today, 539,630 people (1.02% of UK adults) have now completed their full, recommended, course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and 15,300,151 people (29.05% of UK adults) in total have had one vaccination.  

This is fantastic news, and down to an ‘army’ of NHS staff and volunteers. As the PM said today, we have to be optimistic.

15 million vaccinations. The tree that hides the forest?
More than 15 million people in the UK have now received their first dose of a Covid vaccine. A piece of extraordinary news that must be celebrated... with some important caveat.

Today’s Data in Focus

Today’s data indicates the grim and sad fact that 230 people have died in the last 24 hours in the UK. This means that 10,832 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days.

The number of deaths reported in the past 24 hours is again the lowest number since Boxing Day. However, experience tells us that these data are often much higher on a Tuesday.

In addition, 27,536 people have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days. This important data measure has fallen for the twelfth day running, the number of deaths are clearly trending downwards. However, the risk of an upsurge in infections remains very real; with more data, and evidence, about the potential impact of new more transmissible Covid-19 variants.

As the PM, and his experts, emphasised today at the 10 Downing Street press briefing, the number of infections are still very high, and there are still more patients in hospital than at the peak in April 2021.

Back to today’s data. Transmission of the virus remains at a relatively high level with 9,765 new cases reported in the last 24 hours (again this is the lowest reported level since 2 October 2020) and 212,061 new cases reported in the last 14 days.

It is worth reflecting here on the average daily numbers of infections (21,941) and the average daily number of deaths (983) as reported in the last 28 days.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

Latest health care data indicate that 23,341 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 11 February), and 2,943 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 12 February) – still at high levels.  

The Full Data

The 7-day UK data chart is provided below.

7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Trend Lines 15-February-2021

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 15 February 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 9,765 positive tests (↘️ -1,207) in the last 24 hours
  • 230 deaths (↘️ -28) in the last 24 hours
  • 4,047,843 total positive cases (↗️ +9,765) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 117,396 total deaths (↗️ +230) within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 15 February 2021)
  • 1,641 hospital admissions (↘️ -74) – last reported 11 February
  • 23,341 hospital in-patients last reported 11 February
  • 2,943 patients on ventilation beds – last reported 12 February

People vaccinated: (up to and including 14 February 2021)

  • 💉15,300,151 first dose vaccines (↗️ +237,962), i.e. 29.05% of UK adults
  • 💉539,630 second dose vaccines – fully vaccinated (↗️ +1,915), i.e. 1.02% of UK adults

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 12 February 2021)

  • 0.7 to 0.9 with a daily infection growth rate range of -5% to -2%

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 614,351 new cases 🦠
  • 27,536 new deaths

Days since:

  • 382 days since the first reported UK case
  • 346 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes: 121,674 – Registered up to Friday 29 January 2021.  

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 15 February 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]