As 104 people lost their lives because of Covid-19 in the past 24h, a total of 16,390 people have now lost their lives because of the coronavirus in just 28 days – an average of 585 deaths per day. We remain in a “zone of uncertainty”, to quote England’s deputy chief medical officer, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in March 2021.

As of today, 815,816 people (1.55% of UK adults) have now completed their full, recommended, course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and 20,275,451 people (38.49% of UK adults) in total have had one vaccination.  

A remarkable achievement, and a credit to the commitment of our NHS staff and many thousands of volunteers, and of course, to the scientists and all involved in the development, testing and manufacture of the vaccines.

The announcement this afternoon about some new PHE data about the effectiveness of both vaccines in the UK is both important and encouraging.

Today’s data indicate the grim and sad fact that 104 people have died in the last 24 hours in the UK. This means that 5,558 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days.

In addition, 16,390 people have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days. This significant data measure has fallen every day for the last 26 days. That said, transmission of the virus remains at a high level with 5,455 new cases reported in the last 24 hours and 134,167 new cases reported in the UK in the last 14 days.

There remains the risk of an upsurge due to the presence of more transmissible and harmful Covid-19 variants; and the discovery that the Brazil variant of concern has arrived in the UK is of serious concern. More especially so, since one person who tested positive has yet to be traced.

The government is clearly extremely concerned about the need to trace this person, providing some phone numbers in case that person was watching today’s media conference from Number 10 Downing Street.

The PM has stated today, that “We don’t have any reason, at the present time, to think our vaccines are ineffective against these new variants.”

One has to ask the question, what evidence actually exists about our vaccines' effectiveness and efficacy against the Brazil variant, the South Africa variant, and the UK variant?

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It is also worth reflecting here on the average daily numbers of infections (12,365) and the average daily number of deaths (585) as reported in the last 28 days.

Latest health care data indicate that 14,808 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 25 February), and 1,971 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 26 February) – still a significant additional pressure on our NHS.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 1 March 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 5,455 positive tests (↘️ -580) in the last 24 hours
  • 104 deaths (↘️ -40) in the last 24 hours
  • 4,182,009 total positive cases (↗️ +5,455) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 122,953 total deaths (↗️ +104) within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 01 March 2021)
  • 1,112 hospital admissions – last reported 23 February
  • 14,808 hospital in-patients last reported 25 February
  • 1,971 patients on ventilation beds – last reported 26 February
14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Trend Lines 01-March-2021

People vaccinated: (up to and including 28 February 2021)

  • 20,275,451 first doses 💉 (↗️ +185,900), i.e. 38.49% of UK adults
  • 815,816 second doses 💉 – fully vaccinated (↗️ +19,684), i.e. 1.55% of UK adults
People vaccinated in the UK (up to and including 28 February 2021)

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 26 February 2021)

  • 0.6 to 0.9 with a daily infection growth rate range of -6% to -3%

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 346,228 new cases 🦠
  • 16,390 new deaths

Days since:

  • 396 days since the first reported UK case
  • 360 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes: 135,613 – Registered up to Friday 12 February 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 1 March 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]