A further 242 deaths reported due to Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, and very sadly a total of 13,604 people have now lost their lives because of the coronavirus in the past 28 days – on average that is 486 deaths each day, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in March 2021.

As of today, 963,862 people (1.83% of UK adults) have now completed their full, recommended, course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and 20,982,571 people (39.84% of UK adults) in total have had one vaccination.

Credit must go to all our NHS staff, many thousands of volunteers, and of course, to all those involved in the development, testing and manufacture of the vaccines.

Today’s data indicate the grim and sad fact that 242 people have died in the last 24 hours in the UK. This means that 4,467 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days.

In addition, 13,604 people have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days. This significant data measure has fallen every day for the last 29 days. Transmission of the virus remains at a high level with 6,573 new cases reported in the last 24 hours and 124,025 new cases reported in the UK in the last 14 days.

Key data appears generally to be falling, but this is not the complete picture; there may even be signs that the overall level of infections, in the UK as a whole, is reaching a plateau.

As Steven Professor Riley at Imperial College said, on publication of the latest REACT survey data: “Given all the sacrifices we have made in the last year, now is not the time to risk returning to even higher levels of infections.”

Fall in coronavirus infections has slowed in England – REACT study | Imperial News | Imperial College London
Coronavirus infections continue to fall in England but no longer at the sharp rate seen in early February, according to new data from REACT.

The REACT researchers noted that,

“Although prevalence also fell substantially in all regions since January, across this testing round there was variation in patterns of growth and decline across the country. In the North East, North West, East of England and South West infections fell throughout the study round, but the rate of infections remained steady in Yorkshire and the Humber. Conversely in London, the South East, East Midlands and West Midlands there has been an apparent rise in infections.”

So, the risk of an upsurge, due to the presence of more transmissible and harmful Covid-19 variants, such as the recently identified 6 cases of the Brazil variant in the UK, will continue to be of serious concern. Especially as a number of people remain untraced.

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These questions remain unanswered:

  1. What evidence actually exists about our vaccines’ effectiveness and efficacy against the Brazil variant, the South Africa variant, and the UK variant?
  2. When is the government going to publish daily data indicating the number of positive cases reported for each of these (and future) variants of concern?
  3. Has the government now securely bolted the UK’s front door shut, to keep out all variants causing serious concern abroad?
  4. Will the government be reviewing the roadmap if the situation deteriorates?

It is also worth reflecting here on the average daily numbers of infections (11,032) and the average daily number of deaths (486) as reported in the last 28 days.

Latest health care data indicate that 12,136 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 02 March), and 1,647 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 3 March) – still a significant additional pressure on our NHS.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 4 March 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 6,573 positive tests (↗️ +188) in the last 24 hours
  • 757 hospital admissions (↗️ +32) – last reported 28 February
  • 12,136 hospital in-patients (↘️ -713) last reported 2 March
  • 1,647 patients on ventilation beds (↘️ -62) – last reported 3 March
  • 242 deaths (↘️ -73) in the last 24 hours
  • 4,201,358 total positive cases (↗️ +6,573) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 124,025 total deaths (↗️ +242) within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 4 March 2021)
14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 04-March-2021

People vaccinated: (up to and including 3 March 2021)

  • 20,982,571 first doses 💉 (↗️ +278,956), i.e. 39.84% of UK adults
  • 963,862 second doses 💉 – fully vaccinated (↗️ +68,450), i.e. 1.83% of UK adults
People vaccinated in the UK (up to and including 03 March 2021)

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 26 February 2021)

  • 0.6 to 0.9 with a daily infection growth rate range of -6% to -3%

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 308,901 new cases 🦠
  • 13,604 new deaths

Days since:

  • 399 days since the first reported UK case
  • 363 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes: 140,062 – Registered up to Friday 19 February 2021.

These data, and the trends, are shared to focus some light on the journey from the beginning of the pandemic. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 4 March 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]