400 days after the first UK case of coronavirus, a further 236 deaths were reported in 24 hours. Very sadly a total of 12,826 people have now lost their lives in the past 28 days – on average that is 458 deaths each day, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in March 2021.

As of today, 1,034,068 people (1.96% of UK adults) have now completed their full, recommended, course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and 21,358,815 people (40.55% of UK adults) in total have had one vaccination.

Credit must go to: all our NHS staff, for all they have done throughout the pandemic, and to the many thousands of volunteers helping with the vaccinations programme, and of course, to all those involved in the development, testing and manufacture of the vaccines.

Today’s data indicate the grim and sad fact that 236 people have died in the last 24 hours in the UK. This means that 4,170 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days.

In addition, 12,826 people have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days. This significant data measure has fallen every day for the last 30 days. Transmission of the virus remains at a high level with 5,947 new cases reported in the last 24 hours and 112,036 new cases reported in the UK in the last 14 days.

Key data appear to be decreasing, but is this the complete picture? The risk of an upsurge, due to the presence of more transmissible and harmful Covid-19 variants, such as the recently identified 6 cases of the Brazil variant in the UK, continues to be of serious concern.

Meanwhile, thankfully, this afternoon it was announced that “the missing patient with Brazilian Covid variant has been found”. A previously unknown individual who tested positive for the Brazil variant of concern in the UK has indeed finally been located.

Questions remain unanswered:

  1. What evidence actually exists about our vaccines’ effectiveness and efficacy against the Brazil variant, the South Africa variant, and the UK variant?
  2. When is the government going to publish daily data indicating the number of positive cases reported for each of these (and future) variants of concern?
  3. Has the government now securely bolted the UK’s front door shut, to keep out all variants causing serious concern abroad?
  4. Will the government be reviewing the roadmap if the situation deteriorates?
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In addition, the Office for National Statistics weekly survey data was published today. Some main points include that:

“In England, the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to decrease in the week ending 27 February 2021; we estimate that 248,100 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 224,900 to 271,700), equating to around 1 in 220 people.

“Between 21 and 27 February 2021, the percentage of people testing positive in England has decreased in all age groups except School Year 7 to School Year 11 where trends remain uncertain.”

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey | Office for National Statistics

Back to today’s Covid-19 data. It is also worth reflecting here on the average daily numbers of infections (10,562) and the average daily number of deaths (458) as reported in the last 28 days.

Latest health care data indicate that 11,492 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 3 March), and 1,590 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 4 March) – still an additional pressure on our NHS.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 5 March 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 5,947 positive tests (↘️ -626) in the last 24 hours
  • 811 hospital admissions (↗️ +54) – last reported 1 March
  • 11,492 hospital in-patients (↘️ -644) last reported 3 March
  • 1,590 patients on ventilation beds (↘️ -57) – last reported 4 March
  • 236 deaths (↘️ -6) in the last 24 hours
  • 4,207,304 total positive cases (↗️ +5,947) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 124,261 total deaths (↗️ +236) within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 5 March 2021)
14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 05-March-2021

People vaccinated: (up to and including 4 March 2021)

  • 21,358,815 first doses 💉 (↗️ +376,244), i.e. 40.55% of UK adults
  • 1,034,068 second doses 💉 – fully vaccinated (↗️ +70,206), i.e. 1.96% of UK adults
People vaccinated in the UK (up to and including 04 March 2021)

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 5 March 2021)

  • 0.7 to 0.9, with a daily infection growth rate range of -5% to -3%

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 295,734 new cases 🦠
  • 12,826 new deaths

Days since:

  • 400 days since the first reported UK case
  • 364 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes: 140,062 – Registered up to Friday 19 February 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 5 March 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]