With 181 lives reported lost due to Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, 6,753 new infections reported in the last 24 hours, and 40,321 new cases reported in the UK in the last 7 days, have we reached a plateau, or worse still, another inflection point? Dr Joe Pajak asks.

First published in March 2021.

First the positive news from today’s data. As of today, 1,351,515 people (2.57% of UK adults) have now completed their full, recommended, course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and 23,053,716 people (43.77% of UK adults) in total have had one vaccination.

A wonderful achievement by our NHS staff – not forgetting the contribution made by so many thousands of volunteers helping with the vaccinations programme, and of course, all those involved in the development, testing and manufacture of the vaccines.

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Today’s data indicate the sad fact that 181 people have died in the last 24 hours in the UK due to Covid-19. This means that 2,926 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days.

In addition, 9,468 people have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days. This significant data measure has fallen every day for the last 36 days. However, transmission of the virus remains at a high level with 6,753 new cases reported in the last 24 hours and 87,117 new cases reported in the UK in the last 14 days.

More worryingly still, though these changes are slight, the 7-day rolling average number of cases reported has risen for the first time since 9 January 2021; and 40,321 new cases have been reported in the past 7 days, this is the first time that the 7-day total has risen since 22 February 2021, and only the second rise in this metric since 10 January 2021.

UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines since 5 November 2020

The risk of an upsurge, due to the presence of more transmissible and harmful Covid-19 variants, remains a genuine and serious concern.

So, as the government’s roadmap out of lockdown builds momentum, we need to be wary of the potential risk of a further surge in infections, not one least caused by new variants of concern.

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It is worth noting the average numbers in relation to the last 28 days Covid-19 data: average daily numbers of infections (8,680) and the average daily number of deaths (338).

Latest health care data indicate that 8,977 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 9 March), and 1,237 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 10 March) – an additional pressure on our NHS.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 11 March 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 6,753 positive tests (↗️ +827) in the last 24 hours
  • 532 hospital admissions (↘️ -102) – last reported 7 March
  • 8,977 hospital in-patients (↘️ -458) last reported 9 March
  • 1,237 patients on ventilation beds (↘️ -56) – last reported 10 March
  • 181 deaths (↘️ -9) in the last 24 hours
  • 4,241,677 total positive cases (↗️ +6,753) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 125,168 total deaths (↗️ +631) within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 11 March 2021)
14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 11-March-2021

People vaccinated: (up to and including 9 March 2021)

  • 23,053,716 first doses 💉 (↗️ +243,887), i.e. 43.77% of UK adults
  • 1,351,515 second doses 💉 – fully vaccinated (↗️ +97,162), i.e. 2.57% of UK adults
People vaccinated in the UK (up to and including 10 March 2021)

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 5 March 2021)

  • 0.7 to 0.9, with a daily infection growth rate range of -5% to -3%

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 243,026 new cases 🦠
  • 9,468 new deaths

Days since:

  • 406 days since the first reported UK case
  • 370 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes: 143,259 – Registered up to Friday 26 February 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 11 March 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]