3,150 new coronavirus infections, 60 deaths due to Covid-19 reported in 24 hours in the UK, and a total of 19,804 new cases in the past 7 days. Slight increases in deaths and new cases, three days in a row, a cause for concern? Dr Joe Pajak asks.

First published in April 2021.

As of today, 12.42% of UK adults (6,541,174 people) have completed the full course of TWO vaccinations against Covid-19; and 60.57% of UK adults (31,903,366 people) in total have received only one dose. An incredible achievement by our dedicated NHS staff, volunteers, scientists and vaccine manufacturers.

Note: We must remember that the current vaccines the UK is using require two doses to complete the course, so there is no cause for complacency.

Vaccines are the best way for people to be protected from COVID-19 and have already saved thousands of lives, alongside the range of measures provided through various government websites.

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Back to today’s data in the UK, which indicate the sad fact that another 60 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. While, transmission of the virus continues to be at a high level with 3,150 new cases reported in the last 24 hours.

Both these sets of data have shown increases for three consecutive days. While the increases are slight, 3 consecutive increases must warrant extra caution.

It is also worth noting the ONS weekly report published today, and one note in particular which “shows the percentage of people testing positive increased in the North West, with early signs of an increase in the South East in week ending 3 April 2021.”

Warning, we must interpret this with caution, but...?

Again back to the data today. 526 people have now lost their lives in the last 14 days due to Covid-19. In addition, 1,699 have now lost their lives because of the virus in the past 28 days, and 49,008 new cases have been reported in the UK in the last 14 days.

It is also worth noting here, the average number of new coronavirus infections, and of deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (4,508) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (61).

Latest health care data indicate that 3,005 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 7 April), and 421 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 8 April) – a continuing concern for our NHS.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 9 April 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 3,150 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +120 on yesterday’s data)
  • 233 hospital admissions: data report as of 5 April (↗️ +13 since previous report on 3 April)
  • 3,005 hospital in-patients: data report as of 7 April (↘️ -119 since previous report on 6 April)
  • 421 patients on ventilation beds: data report as of 8 April (↘️ -19 since previous report on 7 April)
  • 60 deaths in the last 24 hours (↗️ +7 on yesterday’s data)
  • 4,365,461 total positive cases since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,040 total deaths – within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 9 April 2021)
14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 9 April 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 8 April 2021)

  • 31,903,366 first doses 💉 (↗️ +96,242), i.e. 60.57% of UK adults
  • 6,541,174 fully vaccinated 💉 (↗️ +449,269), i.e. 12.42% of UK adults

People vaccinated in the UK (up to and including 8 April 2021).

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 2 April 2021)

  • England: Between 0.8 and 1

Official note: It is reported that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) estimates England’s latest R number to be between 0.8 and 1. While the latest growth rate range for England is -4% to 0% per day.

The UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state.

Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK-level estimates are less meaningful than previously and may not accurately reflect the current picture of the epidemic.

The R value and growth rates for the 4 nations and NHS England regions are more robust and useful metrics than those for the whole UK.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 126,215 new cases 🦠
  • 1,699 new deaths

Days since:

  • 435 days since the first reported UK case
  • 399 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 149,968 – Registered up to Friday 26 March 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 9 April 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]