30 deaths due to Covid-19 were reported in the last 24 hours in the UK, together with 2,672 new infections; and a total of 18,672 new cases in the past 7 days, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in April 2021.

Variants are still causing significant concern – as demonstrated by the increasing (albeit in small numbers at present) prevalence of the South African variant of Covid-19. London is not the only place affected, with reports that a case of the South African Covid-19 variant has been discovered in the Cape Hill area of Smethwick. Here, Sandwell Council has urged residents aged 16 and over and without symptoms to have a coronavirus test in a bid to identify any more cases.

It was reported yesterday that Barnet Council staff were going door to door in some areas to offer free home PCR testing kits, available to anyone over 16 as a result of the concerns in that area of London. Meanwhile reports yesterday also indicated that surge PCR testing was available for people aged 11 and over who live, work or travel through the boroughs of Wandsworth and Lambeth.

The different advice regarding age ranges needing to be tested appears a little inconsistent.

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As of today, 8,513,864 people have completed the full course of TWO vaccinations (as currently required with our vaccines) against Covid-19; that's equivalent to 12.75% of the total UK population (or 16.16% of the adult population). While, 32,444,439 people in total have received one dose of the vaccine: that's equivalent to 48.57% of the total population (or 61.60% of the adult population).

A wonderful achievement by our NHS staff, volunteers, scientists and vaccine manufacturers.

Note: We must remember that the current vaccines thin use in the UK require two doses to complete the course, so there is no cause for complacency.

Vaccines are the best way for people to be protected from COVID-19 and have already saved thousands of lives, there is little doubt that the recent lockdown has contributed to the downward data trends.

Back to today’s data in the UK, which indicate the sad fact that another 30 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. While, transmission of the virus continues to be at a high level with 2,672 new cases reported in the last 24 hours.

It is also worth noting here, the average number of new coronavirus infections, and of deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (3,898) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (45).

Latest health care data indicate that 2,393 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 13 April), and 351 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 14 April) – a continuing concern for our NHS.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 15 April 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 2,672 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +181 on yesterday’s data)
  • 201 hospital admissions as of 11 April (↗️ +20, since last data report on 10 April)
  • 2,393 hospital in-patients as of 13 April (↘️ -88, since last data report on 12 April)
  • 351 patients on ventilation beds as of 14 April (↘️ -19, since last data report on 13 April)
  • 30 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️ -8 on yesterday’s data)
  • 4,380,976 total positive cases since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,191 total deaths – within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 15 April 2021)
14-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 15 April 2021.

There appears to be some debate about how many people need to be vaccinated for the UK to achieve ‘population immunity’. The British Society of Immunology has published a useful report on this aspect. The number required for population immunity being deduced by mathematical formula. For SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine efficacies of around 95% there have been estimates of between 63-75% of people needing to be immune to provide population immunity.

“The proportion of the population who have to be immune, or otherwise not susceptible, in order to stop transmission depends on how infectious that pathogen is (does it spread easily or not?), how long someone remains infectious (is it just a few days or many months or years?) and whether people know they are infected/infectious (do they always have symptoms or not?). In essence, the number of people required to have immunity is deduced from a mathematical formula dependent on the R0 value for the virus. In the case of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine efficacies of ~95% it is estimated that 63–75% of people need to be immune to provide herd immunity, so we will need a high uptake of vaccines, or widespread natural immunity following infection, to achieve this.”

Given the report above, and the continuing debate about levels of immunity required, the data that is being reported here will now refer to vaccination percentages in terms of the ‘total UK population’ and include the ‘population of adults aged 18 and above’ for reference.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 14 April 2021)

  • 32,444,439 first doses 💉 (↗️ +117,835) – 61.60% of UK adults, or 48.57% of the total UK population.
  • 8,513,864 fully vaccinated 💉 (↗️ +343,783) – 16.16% of UK adults, or 12.75% of the total UK population.
People vaccinated in the UK (up to and including 14 April 2021).

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 2 April 2021)

  • England: Between 0.8 and 1

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 109,141 new cases in total 🦠
  • 1,267 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 441 days since the first reported UK case
  • 405 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 150,419 – Registered up to Friday 2 April 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of NHS foundation trust hospitals.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 15 April 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]