4 deaths due to Covid-19 were reported in the last 24 hours, together with 2,357 new coronavirus infections. A total of 15,367 new cases in the past 7 days. There are some worrying signs that cases may be rising due to the Indian variant, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in May 2021.

Today’s data in the UK indicate the sad fact that 4 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus continues to be at a relatively high level with 2,357 new cases reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections, and of deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,276, first 28-day average increase since January 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (18).

Total number of 7-day case numbers, since 5 May 2021, showing a steady increase; should we be concerned, given the alarming reports of increased numbers of the Indian Variant B.1.617.2 in the week leading up to 5 May 2021?

  • 10-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 15,367
  • 09-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,659
  • 08-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,560
  • 07-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,420
  • 06-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,311
  • 05-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,143

Latest health care data indicate that 1,152 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 6 May), and 159 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 7 May) – clearly a continuing concern for our National Health Service.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 10 May 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 2,357 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +587 on yesterday’s data)
  • 101 hospital admissions as of 4 May (no change: last data reported 4 May)
  • 1,152 hospital in-patients as of 6 May (no change: last data reported 6 May)
  • 159 patients on ventilation beds as of 7 May (↘️ -4 since last data reported 6 May)
  • 4 deaths in the last 24 hours (↗️ +2 on yesterday’s data)
  • 4,437,217 total positive cases since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,609 total deaths – within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 10 May 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 10 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 9 May 2021)

  • 💉35,472,295 first doses (↗️+100,626)
    📈 67.34% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 53.10% of UK population
  • 💉17,856,550 fully vaccinated (↗️+187,171)
    📈 33.90% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 26.73% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 7 May 2021)

  • Latest R and growth rate for England
    0.8 to 1.0
  • Latest growth rate range for England
    -3% to 0% per day

An R value between 0.8 and 1.0 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people.
A growth rate of between -3% and 0% means that the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 3% every day.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 63,717 new cases in total 🦠
  • 511 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 466 days since the first reported UK case
  • 430 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 151,533 – Registered up to Friday 23 April 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 10 May 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]