20 deaths due to Covid-19 were reported in the last 24 hours, together with 2,474 new coronavirus infections. A total of 15,895 new cases in the past 7 days. All three up since yesterday. Worrying signs. Cases may be rising due to the Indian variant B.1.617.2, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in May 2021.

Today’s data in the UK indicate the sad fact that 20 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus continues to be at a relatively high level with 2,474 new cases reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections, and of deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,276, first 28-day average increase since January 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (18). No change in either since yesterday, are we reaching an uptick?

Total number of 7-day case numbers, since 5 May 2021, showing a clear increase; we should be concerned, given the alarming reports of increased numbers of the Indian Variant B.1.617.2 in the week leading up to 5 May 2021.

  • 11-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 15,895
  • 10-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 15,367
  • 09-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,659
  • 08-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,560
  • 07-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,420
  • 06-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,311
  • 05-May: past 7-day total number of reported cases = 14,143

Latest health care data indicate that 1,108 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 9 May), and 143 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 9 May), and hospital admissions slightly up (see below) – clearly a continuing concern for our National Health Service.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 11 May 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 2,474 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +117 on yesterday’s data)
  • 116 hospital admissions as of 5 May (↗️ +15 since last data report 4 May)
  • 1,108 hospital in-patients as of 9 May (↘️ -44 since last data report 6 May)
  • 143 patients on ventilation beds as of 9 May (↘️ -16 since last data report 7 May)
  • 20 deaths in the last 24 hours (↗️ +16 on yesterday’s data)
  • 4,439,691 total positive cases since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,629 total deaths – within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 11 May 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 11 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 10 May 2021)

  • 💉35,587,348 first doses (↗️+115,053)
    📈 67.56% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 53.28% of UK population
  • 💉18,088,385 fully vaccinated (↗️+231,835)
    📈 34.34% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 27.08% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 7 May 2021)

  • Latest R and growth rate for England
    0.8 to 1.0
  • Latest growth rate range for England
    -3% to 0% per day

An R value between 0.8 and 1.0 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people.
A growth rate of between -3% and 0% means that the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 3% every day.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 63,719 new cases in total 🦠
  • 508 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 467 days since the first reported UK case
  • 431 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 151,765 – Registered up to Friday 30 April 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.

[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 11 May 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]