7 deaths due to Covid-19 reported in 24 hours, together with 2,027 new coronavirus infections. A total of 15,762 new cases in 7 days. The UK is on alert, given SAGE concerns about the potential impact of increasing numbers of the Indian Variant, Dr Joe Pajak writes.

First published in May 2021.

Today’s data in the UK indicate sadly that 7 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus continues to be at a relatively high level with 2,027 new cases reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections, and of deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,247) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (15).

The 7-day rolling average case numbers have increased (by 8.3%) in the past 7 days from 14,560 to 15,762. A real concern now given that at least 4 deaths have been caused by the Indian Covid-19 Variant B.1.617.2, together with recent reports of increased numbers of the Indian Variant across the UK.

Latest health care data indicate that 991 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 13 May), and 129 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 13 May) – clearly a continuing concern for our National Health Service.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 15 May 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 2,027 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️-166 on yesterday’s data)
  • 103 hospital admissions as of 11 May (↘️-1 since last data report 10 May)
  • 991 hospital in-patients as of 13 May (↘️-69 since last data report 12 May)
  • 129 patients on ventilation beds as of 13 May (no change as last data report was on 13 May)
  • 7 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️-10 since yesterday)

  • 4,448,851 total positive cases since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,675 total deaths – within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 15 May 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 15 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 14  May 2021)

  • 💉36,320,867 first doses (↗️+204,912)
    📈 68.95% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 54.38% of UK population
  • 💉19,698,121 fully vaccinated (↗️+379,111)
    📈 37.40% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 29.49% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 14 May 2021)

  • 0.8 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England -3% to +1%

An R value between 0.8 and 1.0 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people.
A growth rate of between -3% and 0% means that the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 3% every day.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 62,915 new cases in total 🦠
  • 417 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 471 days since the first reported UK case
  • 435 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 151,765 – Registered up to Friday 30 April 2021.

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  

Data source:

15 May 2021
No cases or deaths data for Northern Ireland
Due to technical issues, the Department of Health in Northern Ireland were unable to update the numbers of cases and deaths reported. Vaccinations have been updated as expected. Therefore, the UK total reported numbers of cases and deaths include updates from England and Scotland only (Wales do not report on Saturdays currently).

Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.