3 more deaths due to Covid-19 reported in 24 hours, together with 2,696 new coronavirus infections. A total of 15,890 new cases in 7 days. Transmission of the B.1.617.2 variant continues to build momentum, Dr Joe Pajak writes.


First published in May 2021.


Summary.

As of 19 May 2021, 475 days since the SARS-CoV2 virus first arrived in Britain, it has infected 4,452,527 people in the UK and killed 127,694 people (within 28 days of first positive test result), i.e. killed 151,904 people in total (whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes), according to Public Health England (PHE).

As of 19 May 2021, 36,985,505 people received a first dose of vaccine in the UK, while 20,870,453 people are now fully vaccinated.


The details.

Today’s data in the UK indicate sadly that 3 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus continues to be at a high level with 2,696 new cases reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections, and of deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,220) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (13).


The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 5.99% in the past 14 days from 30,122 to 31,925 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 6 May 2021 to 19 May 2021)

With our porous borders, many scientists warning that holidays abroad this summer should be avoided. Across the UK, the worrying upwards trend in reported cases of the B.1.617.2 variant, originally detected in India, continues to gather pace.

Latest health care data indicate that 939 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 17 May), and 124 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 18 May) – remaining a continuing concern for our National Health Service.


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 19 May 2021:

(previous day’s figures and change in brackets)

  • 2,696 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️+284 on yesterday’s data)
  • 89 hospital admissions as of 15 May (↘️-27 since last data report on 12 May)
  • 939 hospital in-patients as of 17 May (↗️+7 since last data report on 16 May)
  • 124 patients on ventilation beds as of 18 May (↘️-1 since last data report which was on 17 May)
  • 3 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️-4 since yesterday)

  • 4,452,527 total positive cases since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,694 total deaths – within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 19 May 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 19 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 18 May 2021)

  • 💉36,985,505 first doses (↗️+174,100)
    📈 70.22% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 55.37% of UK population
  • 💉20,870,453 fully vaccinated (↗️+324,001)
    📈 39.62% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 31.24% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 14 May 2021)

  • 0.8 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England -3% to +1%

An R value between 0.8 and 1.0 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people.
A growth rate of between -3% and 0% means that the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 3% every day.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 62,163 new cases in total 🦠
  • 367 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 475 days since the first reported UK case
  • 439 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 151,904 – Registered up to Friday 7 May 2021.


These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


Data source:




19 May – Revision to historical case data in England

  • The introduction of a new system disrupted the removal of cases where a positive rapid lateral flow test was followed by all negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 3 days, as reported on 18 May 2021. Therefore a further 561 cases have now been removed. Newly-reported cases for the UK and England were unaffected. Historical published date totals have not been changed.
  • Newly-reported cases at regional and local authority level within England are calculated as the daily change in the total number of cases. This means that for 19 May 2021, these show significantly lower numbers or zero, and do not reflect the actual number of new cases reported on that date.


Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.






[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 19 May 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]