10 further deaths due to Covid-19 reported in 24 hours and 4,182 new coronavirus infections, highest since 1 April 2021. 20,765 new cases in 7 days, the highest 7-day total since 7 April 2021. The B.1.617.2 variant arrived, dominant, and seemingly rising exponentially, Dr Joe Pajak writes.


First published in May 2021.


Summary.

As of 28 May 2021, 484 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has since this time infected 4,477,705 people in the UK (according to reported positive cases) and caused at least 127,768 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result); while official data indicate 152,068 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 14 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

As of data reported on 24 May 2021, 38,871,200 people have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 24,478,052 people are now fully vaccinated.


The details.

Today’s data in the UK indicate sadly that 10 further deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of particular concern, with a further 4,182 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.


It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,418) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (9).

The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 23.70% in the past 14 days from 30,322 to 37,508 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 15 May 2021 to 28 May 2021). The 7-day cumulative equivalent being an increase of 24.0%.

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Across the UK cases of the B.1.617.2 variant have grown significantly.


Unsurprising given the relaxation of restrictions, and the open borders?

There were 447,300 air passenger arrivals to the UK in April 2021 (from Advanced Passenger Information (API) data). This is four times (298%) higher than the total number of air arrivals for April 2020, immediately following the start of the first UK lockdown, when there were 112,300 arrivals,” according to a document published yesterday.

Latest health care data indicate that 889 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 26 May), and 120 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 27 May) – a continuing concern for our National Health Service.


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 28 May 2021:

(previous figures and changes in brackets)

  • 4,182 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️+640 on yesterday’s data)
  • 134 hospital admissions as of 24 May (↗️+22 since last data report on 23 May)
  • 889 hospital in-patients as of 26 May (↘️-27 since last data report on 25 May)
  • 120 patients on ventilation beds as of 27 May (↘️-5 since last data report on 26 May)
  • 10 deaths in the last 24 hours (same increase as occurred yesterday)

  • 4,477,705 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,768 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 28 May 2021)

7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 28 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 27 May 2021)

  • 💉38,871,200 first doses (↗️+256,517)
    📈 73.80% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 58.19% of UK population
  • 💉24,478,052 fully vaccinated (↗️+434,096)
    📈 46.47% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 36.65% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 28 May 2021)

  • Latest R range for England: 1.0 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: 0% to +3% per day
  • An R value between 1.0 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between 0% and 3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat or growing by up to 3% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 67,710 new cases in total 🦠
  • 251 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 484 days since the first reported UK case
  • 448 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,068 – Registered up to Friday 14 May 2021.


These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


Data source:






Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.


[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 28 May 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]