6 further deaths due to Covid-19 and 3,240 new coronavirus infections reported in 24 hours. 22,474 new cases in 7 days, the highest 7-day total since 6 April. The B.1.617.2 variant is likely to continue to rise exponentially without more direct interventions, Dr Joe Pajak writes.


First published in May 2021.


Summary.

As of 30 May 2021, 486 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has since this time infected 4,484,056 people in the UK (according to reported positive cases) and caused at least 127,781 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result); while official data indicate 152,068 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 14 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

As of data reported up to 29 May 2021, 39,259,168 people have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 25,332,851 people are now fully vaccinated.


The details.

Today’s data in the UK indicate sadly that 6 further deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of particular concern, with a further 3,240 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.


It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,528 - the highest 28-day average since 30 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (9).

The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 30.05% in the past 14 days from 30,907 to 40,193 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 17 May 2021 to 30 May 2021). The official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 26.8% in the relevant 7-day period.

The government says this is a race between the vaccine and the virus. It is, and now is not the time to be considering opening up ‘restrictions’ any further? The data warning us all that the government's roadmap exit from lockdown has gone too far, and should be halted if not reversed.


Across the UK cases of the B.1.617.2 variant worryingly continue to grow.

It’s been entirely predictable, the science has been as clear as possible. Data provided scientists with detail that’s been used to advise government. This detail has regularly been hidden from public view for weeks. It is clear where we are heading, time is against us.

Latest health care data indicate that 870 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 27 May), and 120 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 27 May) – a continuing concern for our National Health Service.


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 30 May 2021:

(previous figures and changes in brackets)

  • 3,240 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️-158 on yesterday’s data)
  • 133 hospital admissions as of 25 May (last report was 25 May)
  • 870 hospital in-patients as of 27 May (last report was 27 May)
  • 120 patients on ventilation beds as of 27 May (last report was 27 May)
  • 6 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️-1 compared to yesterday's figure)

  • 4,484,056 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,781 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 30 May 2021)

7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 30 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 29 May 2021)

  • 💉39,259,168 first doses (↗️+183,526)
    📈 74.53% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 58.77% of UK population
  • 💉25,332,851 fully vaccinated (↗️+418,848)
    📈 48.09% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 37.93% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 28 May 2021)

  • Latest R range for England: 1.0 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: 0% to +3% per day
  • An R value between 1.0 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between 0% and 3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat or growing by up to 3% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 69,201 new cases in total 🦠
  • 251 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 486 days since the first reported UK case
  • 450 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,068 – Registered up to Friday 14 May 2021.


These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


Data source:






Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.






[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 30 May 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]