With the bank holiday weekend lag, only 1 death due to Covid-19 and 3,383 new coronavirus infections were reported in the last 24 hours. 23,418 new cases in 7 days – the highest 7-day total since 5 April. As the B.1.617.2 variant is now dominant, more direct interventions are required. The vaccine is only one element of the solution, Dr Joe Pajak writes.


First published in May 2021.


Summary.

As of 31 May 2021, 487 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has since this time infected 4,487,339 people in the UK (according to reported positive cases) and caused at least 127,782 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result); while official data indicate 152,068 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 14 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

As of data reported up to 30 May 2021, 39,379,411 people (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 25,537,133 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.


It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years. In fact this is far from being a common sense approach!

Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year).

  • Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
  • Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
  • Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
  • Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544

We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above. As of today only 38.23% of the “total” UK population have received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).

The details.

Today’s data in the UK indicate sadly that 1 further death has been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of particular concern, with a further 3,383 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.


It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (2,589 - the highest 28-day average since 28 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (9).

The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 32.59% in the past 14 days from 31,373 to 41,597 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 18 May 2021 to 31 May 2021).

The official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 28.8% in the relevant 7-day period.

The government says this is a race between the vaccine and the virus. It is, and now is not the time to be considering opening up ‘restrictions’. The data have been warning us for some time now that the government’s roadmap exit from lockdown has gone too far, and should be halted, if not reversed. Action is needed now, not in a week or two.


Across the UK cases of the now dominant B.1.617.2 variant worryingly continue to grow.

It’s been entirely predictable, the science has been as clear as possible. Data provided scientists with detail that’s been used to advise government. This detail has regularly been hidden from public view for weeks. It is clear where we are heading, time is against us.

Latest health care data indicate that 870 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 27 May), and 120 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 27 May) – a continuing concern for our National Health Service.


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 31 May 2021:

(previous figures and changes in brackets)

  • 3,383 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️+143 on yesterday’s data)
  • 133 hospital admissions as of 25 May (last report was 25 May)
  • 870 hospital in-patients as of 27 May (last report was 27 May)
  • 120 patients on ventilation beds as of 27 May (last report was 27 May)
  • 1 death in the last 24 hours (↘️-5 compared to yesterday's figure)

  • 4,487,339 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
  • 127,782 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 31 May 2021)

7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 31 May 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 30 May 2021)

  • 💉39,379,411 first doses (↗️+120,243)
    📈 74.76% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 58.95% of UK population
  • 💉25,537,133 fully vaccinated (↗️+204,282)
    📈 48.48% of UK adults (18+)
    📈 38.23% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 28 May 2021)

  • Latest R range for England: 1.0 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: 0% to +3% per day
  • An R value between 1.0 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between 0% and 3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat or growing by up to 3% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

State of the UK epidemic:
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 72,504 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 28 April 2021
  • 243 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 487 days since the first reported UK case
  • 451 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,068 – Registered up to Friday 14 May 2021.


These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


Data source:






Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.






[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 31 May 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]