13 further deaths due to Covid-19 and 5,765 new coronavirus infections were reported in the last 24 hours. There were also 31,395 new cases reported in 7 days. It is increasingly clear where we are heading, and sadly time is against us.


First published in June 2021.


Summary.

As of 5 June 2021, 492 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,511,669 people in the UK (according to reported positive cases) and caused at least 127,836 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result); while official data indicate 152,183 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 21 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

The data reported up to 3 June 2021, indicates that 40,124,229 people (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 27,160,635 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.


It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.

Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year).

  • Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
  • Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
  • Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
  • Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544

We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above. As of today 40.66% of the “total” UK population have received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).

The details.

Today’s data in the UK indicate 13 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of particular concern, with a further 5,765 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.


It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (3,073 - the highest 28-day average since 22 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (8).

The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 57.16% in the past 14 days from 33,637 to 52,864 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 23 May 2021 to 5 June 2021).

The official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 46.2% in the relevant 7-day period.

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What about the government’s roadmap? As we know, there are 4 steps on the roadmap to exit the current lockdown:

Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully.
Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops.
Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad.
Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final restrictions lifted.

Just two weeks to 21 June, where are we now? Well... warning signs ignored, science ignored, and data ignored by the government.

The data has provided government scientists with detail that was meticulously scrutinised. Their analysis has established the risks, and predicted the current scenario. But the government has been hidding those details from view for as long as possible.

It is increasingly clear where we are heading, and sadly time is against us.


Latest health care data indicate that 932 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 3 June), and 134 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 3 June) – a growing concern for our National Health Service.


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 5 June 2021:

(previous figures and changes in brackets)

5,765 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️ -473 on yesterday’s data)
154 hospital admissions as of 1 June (↗️ +31 since last report on 31 May)
932 hospital in-patients as of 3 June (↘️ -22 since last report on 2 June)
134 patients on ventilation beds as of 3 June (same report)
13 deaths in the last 24 hours (↗️ +2 compared to yesterday’s figure)

4,511,669 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
127,836 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 5 June 2021)


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 5 June 2021.

People vaccinated: (up to and including 4 June 2021)

• 💉40,124,229 first doses (↗️+174,535)
📈 76.18% of UK adults (18+)
📈 60.07% of UK population

• 💉27,160,635 fully vaccinated (↗️+360,691)
📈 51.56% of UK adults (18+)
📈 40.66% of UK population

Estimated ®️ number: (as of 4 June 2021)

  • Latest R range for England: 1.0 to 1.2
  • Latest growth rate range for England* 0% to +3% per day
  • An R value between 1.0 and 1.2 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 12 other people. A growth rate of between 0% and 3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat or growing by up to 3% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 86,036 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 22 April 2021
  • 233 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 492 days since the first reported UK case
  • 456 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,183 – Registered up to Friday 21 May 2021.


These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


Data source:






Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.



[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 5 June 2021. | The authors write in a personal capacity.]