7,540 new coronavirus infections (highest daily infections since 26 February) and 6 deaths due to Covid-19 reported in the last 24 hours. There have been 101,763 new infections reported in the past 28 days. Time is against us. Extend the roadmap, but ideally reverse back to before Step 3.
First published in June 2021.
As of 9 June 2021, 496 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,535,754 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data) and been responsible for at least 127,860 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result); while official data indicate 152,289 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
The latest vaccination data indicates that 40,710,319 people (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 28,540,844 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year).
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
- Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
- Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.
As of today 42.73% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 6 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 7,540 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (3,634 - the highest 28-day average since 17 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (8).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 89% in the past 14 days from 35,519 to 67,129 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 27 May 2021 to 9 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 66% in the relevant 7-day period.
Comment of the Day.
In the paper today, we learnt that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is “understood to be personally frustrated at the prospect” of having to delay the 21 June reopening.
“Personally frustrated”? Does it always have to be about Boris Johnson, his mood and his feelings, or can we actually take those things seriously once and for all, look at the data and listen to the experts who are warning us of the risk of a “substantial” third wave of coronavirus in the UK?
📈 𝟳,𝟱𝟰𝟬 daily cases | Increase of 𝟳𝟰.𝟭% ↗️ compare to previous week.
📈 𝟰𝟭,𝟴𝟴𝟵 weekly cases | Increase of 𝟲𝟲% ↗️ compare to previous week.
📈 𝟲𝟲 weekly deaths | Increase of 𝟰𝟯.𝟱% ↗️ compare to previous week.
📈 𝟮𝟬,𝟴𝟬𝟱 28-day sequenced cases of the Delta variant | Representing 𝟲𝟯.𝟮% ↗️ of all sequenced cases.
The government’s roadmap, as we know it, cannot possibly still go ahead:
• Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final restrictions lifted ❓
Just 12 days to 21 June, where are we now? Well... Warning signs repeatedly being ignored, science ignored, experts ignored, and data ignored by the government. It is ever clearer where we are heading, and sadly time is against us.
Latest health care data indicate that 1,024 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 7 June) – highest since 12 May, and 154 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 8 June) – highest since 7 May – a growing concern for our National Health Service.
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
The Full Data
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 9 June 2021:
(previous figures and changes in brackets)
• 7,540 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +1,492 on yesterday’s data)
• 123 hospital admissions as of 3 June (↘️ -3 on last report, dated 2 June)
• 1,024 hospital in-patients as of 7 June (↗️ +67 on last report, dated 6 June) – highest one day increase since 12 April 2021
• 154 patients on ventilation beds as of 8 June (↗️ +6 on last report, dated 7 June)
• 6 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️ -7 compared to yesterday’s figure)
• 4,535,754 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
• 127,860 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 9 June 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 9 June 2021.
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 8 June 2021)
• 💉40,710,319 first doses (↗️+136,802)
📈 77.29% of UK adults (18+)
📈 60.95% of UK population
• 💉28,540,844 fully vaccinated (↗️+313,482)
📈 54.18% of UK adults (18+)
📈 42.73% of UK population
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 8 June 2021)
Estimated ®️ number: (as of 4 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England: 1.0 to 1.2
- Latest growth rate range for England* 0% to +3% per day
- An R value between 1.0 and 1.2 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 12 other people. A growth rate of between 0% and 3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat or growing by up to 3% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 101,763 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 17 April 2021
- 220 deaths in total
- 496 days since the first reported UK case
- 460 days since the first reported UK death
The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,289 – Registered up to Friday 28 May 2021.
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 4 June 2021 | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
— AUTHORS —
▫ Dr Joe Pajak, Professional experience applied scientific research and development, then director of a national children’s charity, trustee of a disability charity, and governor of an NHS foundation trust hospital.
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 9 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]