7,738 new coronavirus infections and 12 deaths due to Covid-19 reported in 24 hours. Also 118,142 new infections reported in the past 28 days. The roadmap has taken us too far in the wrong direction. Time to pause and maybe return to previous steps before the Delta-driven third wave imposes another strict lockdown upon us.
First published in June 2021.
As of 12 June 2021, 499 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,558,494 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data) and been responsible for at least 127,896 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result); while official data indicate 152,289 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
The latest vaccination data indicates that 41,291,331 people (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 29,450,653 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year).
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
- Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
- Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.
As of today 44.09% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 12 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 7,738 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (4,219 – the highest 28-day average since 12 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (8).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 97.21% in the past 14 days from 40,193 to 79,263 (i.e. 14-day totals, from 29 May 2021 to 11 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 52.5% in the relevant 7-day period.
Comment of the Day.
Recognising today that it was “clear” the Delta variant was “more transmissible” with more and more cases and hospitalisations and that he is now less optimistic than he was at the end of May, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Sky News:
“Now, we don’t know to what extent that exactly is going to feed through into extra mortality but, clearly it’s a matter of serious, serious concern.”
Indeed, Boris Johnson for the first time signalled that he could (finally!) announce a delay to the Stage 4 of the roadmap to exit the lockdown in a briefing on on Monday.
“What we want to do is make sure that the roadmap is irreversible – but you can’t have an irreversible roadmap unless you’re prepared to be cautious.”
“Just to cheer you up a little bit more, what I can tell you is the scientists are agreed about one thing: they do not think there is any case for going into reverse,” he told Beth Rigby.
“The context has radically changed because of the sheer number of people who have been vaccinated and particularly the elderly and vulnerable. So the objective now is to give that vaccination programme the legs, the impetus, the speed it needs to beat the spread of the virus. And I’ve got no doubt that we can.”
“You’re seeing a different group now going into hospital, largely, and the outcomes on the whole are better. That is caused by the huge effectiveness of the vaccine rollout.”
Increased infections and hospitalisations are not things the government should be happy with. It means more infections within the community, especially children. It means more people are likely to end up with Long-COVID.
The idea that postponing the 21 June reopening by four weeks will fix everything and stop the exponential spread of the Delta variant by 19 July (with a two-week break clause!) is definitely not putting the data before dates, it is ignoring the data and putting dates before the science.
When you take a look at the data, you cannot but help notice something is going wrong. It is clearly time to listen to those SAGE experts who are currently warning us of the risk of a “substantial” third wave of coronavirus in the UK.
📈 𝟳,𝟳𝟯𝟴 daily cases |↗️ 𝟯𝟰.𝟮𝟮% compared to previous week
📈 𝟰𝟳,𝟴𝟲𝟴 weekly cases |↗️ ️𝟱𝟮.𝟱% compared to previous week
📈 𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟴 weekly hospital admission |↗️ 𝟭𝟱.𝟮% compared to previous week
📉 𝟲𝟬 weekly deaths |↘️ -𝟭.𝟲% compared to previous week
📈 𝟮𝟱,𝟭𝟲𝟳 sequenced cases of the Delta variant in 28 days |↗️ 𝟲𝟵.𝟭𝟵% of all cases
The government’s roadmap, as we know it, cannot go ahead any longer. A return to previous steps and previous restrictions, if it is not imposed by the prime minister in time to prevent more spread of the virus and more loss of lives in the country, will impose itself eventually if the Delta variant continues it exponential progression within the community.
Time to pause and maybe return to previous steps before the Delta-driven third wave imposes another strict lockdown upon us.
THE CURRENT ROADMAP:
• Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final restrictions lifted ❓
Latest health care data indicate that 1,089 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 10 June) – highest since 12 May, and 158 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 10 June) – a growing concern for our National Health Service.
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
The Full Data
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 12 June 2021:
(previous figures and changes in brackets)
• 7,738 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️-387 on yesterday’s data)
• 187 hospital admissions as of 8 June (↗️+14 on last report, dated 7 June)
• 1,089 hospital in-patients as of 10 June (↗️+31 on last report, dated 9 June)
• 158 patients on ventilation beds as of 10 June (this was the last report)
• 12 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️-5 compared to yesterday’s figure)
• 4,558,494 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
• 127,896 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 12 June 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 12 June 2021.
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 11 June 2021)
• 💉41,291,331 first doses (↗️+202,846)
📈 78.39% of UK adults (18+)
📈 61.82% of UK population
• 💉29,450,653 fully vaccinated (↗️+285,513)
📈 55.91% of UK adults (18+)
📈 44.09% of UK population
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 11 June 2021)
Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 11 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
- Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +6% per day
- An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 118,142 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 12 April 2021 and almost double the equivalent figure [61,975] on 17 May when step 3 of the Government's lockdown exit strategy was implemented.
- 221 deaths in total
- 499 days since the first reported UK case
- 463 days since the first reported UK death
The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,289 – Registered up to Friday 28 May 2021.
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 4 June 2021 | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 12 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]