500 days since the first SARS-CoV-2 case was reported in the UK, 7,490 new coronavirus infections and 8 deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 123,706 new infections reported in the past 28 days. As Boris Johnson prepares to announce that “freedom day” will have to be postponed for another month – to the despair of his Libertarian Minions – the Delta variant worryingly makes up more than 90% of new coronavirus infections.
First published in June 2021.
As of 13 June 2021, 500 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,565,813 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 127,904 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,289 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
The latest vaccination data indicates that 41,551,201 people (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 29,792,658 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures are due to be updated in June 2021.
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
- Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
- Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.
As of today 44.60% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 8 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 7,490 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (4,418 – the highest 28-day average since 9 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (8).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 100.8% in the past 14 days from 41,597 to 83,513 (14-day totals, from 31 May 2021 to 13 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 49.3% in the relevant 7-day period.
Comment of the Day.
As Boris Johnson prepares to announce that “freedom day” will now have to be postponed for another month – to the despair of his Libertarian Minions and anti-lockdown MPs, the Delta variant worryingly makes up more than 90% of new coronavirus infectious.
At this point in time – and probably because the government has once again been too late to act, even with the rapid rollout of vaccines, the country will certainly face a third wave of infections. A surge that will sadly hit the NHS in the summer.
Dr Raghib Ali, an honorary consultant in acute medicine at the Oxford University hospitals NHS trust, explains that “in terms of emergency admissions, last month was the busiest since the start of the pandemic. We are much busier now in emergency departments than at the peaks of either the first or second wave.”
Professor Graham Medley, Professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of SAGE, also explains that “the evidence has all gone into government. It’s a government decision, quite rightly, how to balance the health and healthcare outcomes with all the other harms that Covid-19 and restrictions bring. The evidence from the epidemiology will all be published and open to scrutiny.”
📈 𝟳,𝟰𝟵𝟬 daily cases |↗️ 𝟰𝟬.𝟮𝟯% compared to previous week
📈 𝟱𝟬,𝟬𝟭𝟳 weekly cases |↗️ ️𝟰𝟵.𝟯% compared to previous week
📈 𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟴 weekly hospital admission |↗️ 𝟭𝟱.𝟮% compared to previous week
📈 𝟲𝟰 weekly deaths |↗️ 𝟴.𝟱% compared to previous week
📈 𝟯𝟭,𝟬𝟴𝟴 sequenced cases of the Delta variant in 28 days |↗️ 𝟳𝟮.𝟵𝟯% of all cases
The government’s roadmap, as we know it, cannot go ahead any longer. A return to previous steps and previous restrictions, if it is not imposed by the prime minister in time to prevent more spread of the virus and more loss of lives in the country, will impose itself eventually if the Delta variant continues its exponential progression within the community.
Time to pause and maybe return to previous steps before the Delta-driven third wave imposes another strict lockdown upon us.
THE CURRENT ROADMAP:
• Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final restrictions lifted ❓
Latest health care data indicate that 1,089 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 10 June) – highest since 12 May, and 158 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 10 June) – a growing concern for our National Health Service.
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
The Full Data
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 13 June 2021:
(previous figures and changes in brackets)
• 7,490 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️ -248 on yesterday’s data)
• 187 hospital admissions as of 8 June (this was the last report)
• 1,089 hospital in-patients as of 10 June (this was the last report)
• 158 patients on ventilation beds as of 10 June (this was the last report)
• 8 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️ -4 compared to yesterday’s figure)
• 4,565,813 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
• 127,904 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 13 June 2021)
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 13 June 2021.
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 12 June 2021)
• 💉41,551,201 first doses (↗️+254,185)
📈 78.88% of UK adults (18+)
📈 62.21% of UK population
• 💉29,792,658 fully vaccinated (↗️+320,326)
📈 56.56% of UK adults (18+)
📈 44.60% of UK population
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 12 June 2021)
Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 11 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
- Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +6% per day
- An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 123,706 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 12 April 2021 and almost double the equivalent figure [61,975] on 17 May when step 3 of the Government's lockdown exit strategy was implemented.
- 225 deaths in total
- 500 days since the first reported UK case
- 464 days since the first reported UK death
The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,289 – Registered up to Friday 28 May 2021.
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 4 June 2021 | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 13 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]