7,742 new coronavirus infections and 3 deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 129,469 new infections reported in the past 28 days. Will postponing Step 4 of the prime minister’s exit strategy to 19 July be enough to deal with this government-made crisis? Causes were clear: steps too far, too fast, and the UK’s porous borders.
First published in June 2021.
As of 14 June 2021, 501 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,573,419 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 127,907 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,289 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
The latest vaccination data indicates that 41,698,429 (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 29,973,779 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures are due to be updated in June 2021.
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
- Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
- Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.
As of today 44.87% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 3 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 7,742 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (4,624 – the highest 28-day average since 8 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (8).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 107.5% in the past 14 days from 42,350 to 87,872 (14-day totals, from 1 June 2021 to 14 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 45.5% in the relevant 7-day period.
Comment of the Day.
Dr Deepti Gurdasani, Senior Lecturer in Machine Learning at Queen Mary University of London, explains that “looking at the Delta variant distribution in Scotland – even based on case data not from asymptomatic testing (underestimates childhood infection), it is clear that school children account for a large proportion of infections and are disproportionately more infected with the Delta variant.
“We see the same pattern we saw early on with the Alpha variant, with 5-9 year olds showing disproportionately higher infection of Delta compared with Alpha (B117), during the period of the study.
“It shows that children in schools have contributed significantly to spread this variant into the community and it gaining dominance.
“Given this is the second variant we are seeing this with, I really hope this will bring an end to the denial around the role of children and schools in transmission, and push government and scientific advisors to invest in robust mitigations in schools that are urgently needed.
“Given the known higher severity of this variant, we should be wary of exposing anyone to it.”
It seems, however, that the government and its scientific advisors don’t agree with the idea of not exposing anyone to the Delta variant. Indeed, at Monday’s briefing with Boris Johnson, Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for England and the government’s Chief Medical Adviser (CMA), told the British public that despite the 4-week delay in the roadmap, “there will still be substantial numbers in hospitals and sadly there will be some people who will go on to die of this – the question is a matter of balance.”
Most importantly, he put the final nail in the coffin of the Zero Covid strategy of elemination of the coronavirus by adding:
“We will have to live with this virus – which will continue to cause severe infections and kill people – for the rest of our lives.”
Professor Chris Whitty. | The Guardian
Living with this virus? Are we back in the old herd immunity territory?
Professor Whitty, PM Boris Johnson and his Libertarian Minions should really meet and ask the families and friends of the 152,289 people who have died because of Covid-19 what they think. Also meet and ask the estimated 1 million people who are living with Long Covid – that’s including children – if they think it is alright to “live with this virus”.
Then, maybe... just maybe... we’ll start talking.
THE NEW ROADMAP:
• Step 1:8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2:12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3:17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• Step 4:21 June 🚦 Final restrictions delayed until 19 July ⛔️
• Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted ❓
Latest health care data indicate that 1,089 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 10 June) – highest since 12 May, and 161 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 11 June) – an increasing concern for our National Health Service.
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
The Full Data
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 14 June 2021:
(previous figures and changes in brackets)
• 7,742 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +252 on yesterday’s data)
• 187 hospital admissions as of 8 June (this was the last report)
• 1,089 hospital in-patients as of 10 June (this was the last report)
• 161 patients on ventilation beds as of 11 June (↗️ +3 since the last report on 10 June)
• 3 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️ -5 compared to yesterday’s figure)
• 4,573,419 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
• 127,907 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 14 June 2021)
📈 𝟳,𝟳𝟰𝟮 positive cases in 24h |↗️ 𝟰𝟬.𝟮𝟯% compared to previous week
📈 𝟱𝟮,𝟬𝟳𝟲 weekly cases |↗️ ️𝟰𝟱.𝟱% compared to previous week
📈 𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟴 weekly hospital admission |↗️ 𝟭𝟱.𝟮% compared to previous week
📈 𝟲𝟲 weekly deaths |↗️ 𝟭𝟭.𝟵% compared to previous week
📈 𝟭𝟱,𝟭𝟲𝟱 weekly sequenced cases of the Delta variant |↗️ 𝟱𝟲.𝟳𝟵% compared to previous week |↗️ 𝟴𝟲.𝟬𝟰% of all cases
📈 𝟯𝟯,𝟴𝟭𝟮 28-day sequenced cases of the Delta variant |↗️ 𝟳𝟱.𝟲𝟳% of all cases
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 14 June 2021.
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 13 June 2021)
• 💉41,698,429 first doses (↗️+147,228)
📈 79.16% of UK adults (18+)
📈 62.43% of UK population
• 💉29,973,779 fully vaccinated (↗️+181,121)
📈 56.90% of UK adults (18+)
📈 44.87% of UK population
(Vaccination data corrected from an earlier version of this article with the wrong data.)
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 13 June 2021)
Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 11 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
- Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +6% per day
- An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 112,431 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 14 April 2021
- 216 deaths in total
- 498 days since the first reported UK case
- 462 days since the first reported UK death
The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,289 – Registered up to Friday 28 May 2021.
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 11 June 2021 | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 14 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]