7,673 new coronavirus infections and sadly 10 deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 134,730 new infections reported in the past 28 days. Does postponing Step 4 of the prime minister’s exit strategy to 19 July actually address the missteps that have led to this increasingly concerning trend upwards?
First published in June 2021.
As of 15 June 2021, 501 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,581,006 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 127,917 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,397 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
The latest vaccination data indicates that 41,831,056 (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 30,209,707 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures are due to be updated in June 2021.
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
- Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
- Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.
As of today 45.23% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 10 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 7,673 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (4,812 – the highest 28-day average since 6 April 2021) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (8).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 110% in the past 14 days from 43,984 to 92,380 (14-day totals, from 2 June 2021 to 15 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 38.8% in the relevant 7-day period.
THE NEW ROADMAP:
• Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final relaxing of restrictions now delayed until 19 July ⛔️
• Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted ❓
Latest health care data indicate that 1,136 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 13 June) – highest since 7 May, and 188 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 14 June) – an increasing concern for our National Health Service.
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
The Full Data
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 15 June 2021:
(previous figures and changes in brackets)
• 7,673 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️ -69 on yesterday’s data)
• 184 hospital admissions as of 9 June (↘️ -3 since last report on 8 June)
• 1,136 hospital in-patients as of 13 June (↗️ +47 since last report on 10 June)
• 188 patients on ventilation beds as of 14 June (↗️ +27 since the last report on 11 June)
• 10 deaths in the last 24 hours (↗️ +7 compared to yesterday’s figure)
• 4,581,006 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
• 127,917 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 15 June 2021)
📈 𝟳,𝟲𝟳𝟯 positive cases in 24h |↗️ 𝟮𝟲.𝟴𝟲% vs previous week
📈 𝟱𝟯,𝟳𝟬𝟭 weekly cases |↗️ ️𝟯𝟴.𝟴% vs previous week
📈 𝟭,𝟬𝟲𝟳 weekly hospital admission |↗️ 𝟮𝟮.𝟭% vs previous week
📉 𝟲𝟯 weekly deaths |↘️-𝟭𝟮.𝟱% compared to previous week
📈 𝟭𝟱,𝟭𝟲𝟱 weekly sequenced cases of the Delta variant |↗️ 𝟱𝟲.𝟳𝟵% compared to previous week |↗️ 𝟴𝟲.𝟬𝟰% of all cases
📈 𝟯𝟯,𝟴𝟭𝟮 28-day sequenced cases of the Delta variant |↗️ 𝟳𝟱.𝟲𝟳% of all cases
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 15 June 2021.
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 14 June 2021)
• 💉41,831,056 first doses (↗️+132,627)
📈 79.42% of UK adults (18+)
📈 62.62% of UK population
• 💉30,209,707 fully vaccinated (↗️+235,928)
📈 57.35% of UK adults (18+)
📈 45.23% of UK population
Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 11 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
- Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +6% per day
- An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 134,730 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 6 April 2021
- 226 deaths in total
- 502 days since the first reported UK case
- 466 days since the first reported UK death
The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,397 – Registered up to Friday 4 June 2021.
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 11 June 2021 | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
— AUTHOR —
▫ Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 15 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]