10,321 new coronavirus infections and sadly 14 deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 164,496 new infections reported in the past 28 days. The third wave of the Coronavirus pandemic is now upon us as the vaccine programme races to outrun transmission of the Delta variant across Britain, Dr Joe Pajak writes.
First published in June 2021.
506 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,620,968 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 127,970 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,397 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
The latest vaccination data indicates that 42,679,268 (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 31,087,325 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures are due to be updated at the end of June 2021.
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
- Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
- Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.
As of today 46.54% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 14 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 10,321 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (5,875) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (9).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 99.5% in the past 14 days from 55,970 to 111,632 (14-day totals, from 6 June 2021 to 19 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 33.2% in the relevant 7-day period.
Quote of the Day.
Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), told the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It’s going up, perhaps we can be a little bit optimistic it’s not going up any faster, but nevertheless it’s going up, so this third wave is definitely under way.
“We can conclude that the race is firmly on between the vaccine programme, particularly getting older people’s second doses done, and the Delta variant third wave.
“I don’t feel confident (that vaccinations will outpace the Delta variant), but I think there’s some grounds for optimism.
“The latest ONS figures continue to show a rise, but that rise has not accelerated quite as much as I’d feared over the last week. So, the race is on.”
THE NEW ROADMAP:
• Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final relaxing of restrictions now delayed until 19 July ⛔️
• Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted ❓
Latest health care data indicate that 1,316 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 17 June) – highest since 30 April 2021 2021, and 210 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 17 June), highest number since 27 April 2021, and there were 226 new Covid-19 admissions (on the 15 June) highest since 7 April 2021, all three an increasing concern for our National Health Service.
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
The Full Data
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 19 June 2021:
(previous figures and changes in brackets)
• 10,321 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↘️ -155 on yesterday’s data)
• 226 hospital admissions as of 15 June (↗️ +5 since last report on 14 June)
• 1,316 hospital in-patients as of 17 June (↗️ +65 since last report on 16 June)
• 210 patients on ventilation beds as of 17 June (the last report was on 17 June)
• 14 deaths in the last 24 hours (↗️ +3 compared to yesterday’s figure)
• 4,620,968 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
• 127,970 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 19 June 2021)
📈 𝟭𝟬,𝟯𝟮𝟭 positive cases in 24h |↗️ 𝟯𝟯.𝟯𝟴% vs previous week
📈 𝟲𝟯,𝟳𝟲𝟰 weekly cases |↗️ ️𝟯𝟯.𝟮% vs previous week
📈 𝟭,𝟰𝟭𝟯 weekly hospital admission |↗️ 𝟯𝟵.𝟲% vs previous week
📈 𝟳𝟰 weekly deaths |↗️ 𝟮𝟯.𝟯% vs previous week
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 19 June 2021.
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 18 June 2021)
• 💉42,460,632 first doses (↗️+218,636)
📈 81.03% of UK adults (18+)
📈 63.89% of UK population
• 💉31,087,325 fully vaccinated (↗️+188,858)
📈 59.02% of UK adults (18+)
📈 46.54% of UK population
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 18 June 2021)
Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 11 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
- Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +6% per day
- An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 164,496 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 25 March 2021
- 254 deaths in total
- 506 days since the first reported UK case
- 470 days since the first reported UK death
The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,397 – Registered up to Friday 4 June 2021.
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 19 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]