10,633 new coronavirus infections and sadly 5 deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 179,739 new infections reported in the past 28 days. Some major questions remain, what is the strategy for vaccinating children and young people aged 12 to 17, and why no mask mandate in secondary schools? Dr Joe Pajak asks.


First published in June 2021.


Today’s Summary.

508 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,640,507 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 127,981 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,397 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to 28 May 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

The latest vaccination data indicates that 43,127,763 (aged 18 and above) have received a first dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in the UK, while 31,449,915 people (aged 18 and above) are now fully vaccinated.


It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.

Total UK population: 66,796,800, via ONS mid-year June 2020 (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures are due to be updated at the end of June 2021.

  • Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,673,433
  • Population aged 16 and above = 54,098,971
  • Population aged 11 and above = 57,975,918
  • Population aged 5 and above = 62,939,544

We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above.

As of today 47.08% of the “total” UK population has received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).

The Details.

Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 5 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 10,633 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.


It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections (6,419) and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (9).

The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 92.0% in the past 14 days from 62,769 to 120,525 (14-day totals, from 8 June 2021 to 21 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 31.4% in the relevant 7-day period.

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Comment of the Day.

Three people, three different views on the current situation with the coronavirus. A former journalist turned politician, an economics journalist and a top scientist. Who is right, who is not?

PM Boris Johnson told a pool reporter today that the country could be in for a “rough winter for all sorts of reasons”, before adding, about the chances of reopening on 19 July, that he thinks it’s looking good for 19 July to be that terminus point.”

Sky News

Sky News’ economics and data editor Ed Conway explained that things are going well, very well, in comparison with what anyone expected in the early spring. There are likely to be a few explanations: the vaccine programme is outperforming expectations, lockdown is lasting a little longer than expected.

“What is happening at present – with cases going up and up – is not a surprise. Indeed, it is the plan.”

Finally, Sir David King, former government’s Chief Scientific Advisor (2000-2007) and current Head of Independent SAGE explained on Sky News how the mistakes being repeatedly made by the UK Government first with the Alpha variant and now with the Delta variant have a direct impact on the strategy that is needed to deal with the coronavirus.

Sir David also said that he thinks secondary school children should be vaccinated and wear masks in schools in order to both protect them and protect their communities from the very contagious Delta variant.


So, who should anyone believe? Follow the data and the science, we say.

THE NEW ROADMAP:
Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
Step 4: 21 June 🚦 Final relaxing of restrictions now delayed until 19 July ⛔️
Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted ❓








Latest health care data indicate that 1,316 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 17 June) – highest since 30 April 2021 2021, and 223 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 18 June), highest number since 26 April 2021, and there were 226 new Covid-19 admissions (on the 15 June) highest since 7 April 2021, all three an increasing concern for our National Health Service.


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

The Full Data

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 21 June 2021:

(previous figures and changes in brackets)

10,633 positive tests in the last 24 hours (↗️ +1,349 on yesterday’s data)
226 hospital admissions as of 15 June (last report was on 15 June)
1,316 hospital in-patients as of 17 June (last report was on 17 June)
223 patients on ventilation beds as of 18 June (↗️ +13 on the last report on 17 June)
5 deaths in the last 24 hours (↘️ -1 compared to yesterday’s figure)

4,640,507 total positive cases (recorded) since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
127,981 total deaths – number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 21 June 2021)

Additional Data:

📈 𝟭𝟬,𝟲𝟯𝟯 new cases (last 24h)
↗️ 𝟯𝟳.𝟯𝟰% vs previous week

📈 𝟲𝟴,𝟰𝟰𝟵 weekly cases
↗️ 𝟯𝟭.𝟰% vs previous week

🚧 𝟮𝟮𝟲 hospitalisations (no changes)
↗️ 𝟯𝟵.𝟲% vs previous week

📈 𝟭,𝟰𝟭𝟯 weekly hospitalisations
↗️ 𝟯𝟵.𝟲% vs previous week

📉 𝟱 new deaths (last 24h)
↗️ 𝟭𝟮.𝟭% previous week

📈 𝟳𝟰 weekly deaths
↗️ 𝟭𝟮.𝟭% vs previous week


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 21 June 2021.

People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 20 June 2021)

• 💉43,127,763 first doses (↗️+163,750)
📈 81.88% of UK adults (18+)
📈 64.57% of UK population

• 💉31,449,915 fully vaccinated (↗️+109,408)
📈 59.71% of UK adults (18+)
📈 47.08% of UK population

People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 20 June 2021)

Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 11 June 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
  • Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +6% per day
  • An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 179,739 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 21 March 2021
  • 257 deaths in total

Days since:

  • 508 days since the first reported UK case
  • 472 days since the first reported UK death

The total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes: 152,397 – Registered up to Friday 4 June 2021.


These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


Data source:







— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 21 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]