22,868 new coronavirus infections (the highest daily number reported since 30 January 2021) and sadly 3 deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 272,608 new infections reported in the past 28 days.


First published in June 2021.






📆 Today’s Summary.

515 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,755,078 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 128,103 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,490 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 11 June 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).


🔍 The Details.

Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 3 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 22,868 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections at 9,736 (the highest 28-day average since 7 March 2021), and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (11).


The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 99.97% in the past 14 days from 92,380 to 184,736 (14-day totals, from 15 June 2021 to 28 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 69.9% in the relevant 7-day period.

Latest health care data indicate that 1,505 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 24 June) and 257 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 25 June), and there were 227 new Covid-19 admissions (on the 22 June), all three an increasing concern for our National Health Service.

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.


THE NEW ROADMAP:
Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
S̶t̶e̶p̶ ̶4̶:̶ ̶2̶1̶ ̶J̶u̶n̶e̶ ̶🚦̶ ̶F̶i̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶a̶x̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶t̶r̶i̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶l̶a̶y̶e̶d̶
Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted ❓

For more stories like this, sign up to our FREE Briefings today.


Sajid Javid. | UK Government

💬 Comment of the Day.

When do you know that science has essentially been replaced by ignorance, and data by dates in the government’s strategy? When do you know that the government has very simply given up on keeping coronavirus cases down?

Probably when the first official statement in Parliament by the new Health Secretary Sajid Javid is to tell MPs: “We know we cannot simply eliminate (the virus); we have to learn to live with it”, “Make no mistake: the restrictions on our freedoms must come to an end” and “With the numbers heading in the right direction, all while we protect more and more people each day, 19 July remains our target date”.

Hansard, UK Parliament

Earlier in the morning, Sajid Javid had also told the BBC: “I want to see the restrictions lifted and life going back to normal as quickly as possible. That is my absolute priority. I want to see those restrictions lifted as soon as we can.

It’s going to be irreversible, there’s no going back. That’s why we want to be careful during that process.”

BBC News

The government has set arbitrary dates for the easing of the COVID-19 restriction that were simply designed to appease Tory backbenchers, Libertarian Minions within the Conservative Party, and party donors, and Sajid Javid’s brief, when taking on Matt Hancock’s job, must have been to keep with that narrative and the herd immunity strategy that Hancock didn’t necessarily agree with.

Basically, forget about masks and ventilation in schools, forget about social distancing, forget about Long COVID, etc. Time to open everything, whatever the costs in infections and lives.

Hansard, UK Parliament

Sajid Javid, like Boris Johnson, likes to remind us that the government wants “every step to be irreversible”. But what will irreversible look like if circumstances change for the worst, Mr Javid?

With 22,868 cases today (the highest daily number reported since 30 January 2021), and 116,287 cases in a week (an increase of 69.9% compared to the previous week), some estimate that, if these trends were to go on, we could easily hit 35,000 to 45,000 cases a day by 19 July. What if more cases translated into more hospital cases, and then more deaths?

This was the reaction of Professor Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London, and a member of Independent SAGE to Sajid Javid’s comments:

Channel 4 News

What else can we say about it?

Read more comments like this... Sign up to [the brief] today.



🧬 Variants News.










Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants:

UK COVID-19 variant updates.
The latest COVID-19 variant updates in the United Kingdom.

📈 Full Data Today

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 28 June 2021

CASES
📈 22,868 daily
↗️ +115.0% vs last week
📈 116,287 weekly
↗️ +69.9% vs last week

HOSPITALISATIONS
📈 227 daily
↗️ +2.3% vs last week
📈 1,557 weekly
↗️ +10.3% vs last week

IN-PATIENTS
📈 1,505 daily
↗️ +14.2% vs last week

ON VENTILATION BEDS
📉 257 daily
↗️ +15.2% vs last week

DEATHS
📉 3 daily
↗️ +83.3% vs last week
📉 122 weekly
↗️ +64.9% vs last week

TOTALS
🔴 4,755,078 positive cases so far (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
⚫️ 128,103 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 28 June 2021)
⚫️ 152,490 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes – Registered up to Friday 11 June 2021.


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 28 June 2021.


💉 Vaccination Data

People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 27 June 2021)

• 💉44,454,511 first doses
📈 84.05% of UK adults (18+)
📈 66.27% of the total UK population

• 💉32,583,746 fully vaccinated
📈 61.61% of UK adults (18+)
📈 48.57% of the total UK population

* Using latest ONS population data published on 25 June 2021

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 27 June 2021.

COVID-19 vaccinations plotted as 7-day averages. Daily figures include vaccines (first and second dose, and total) given up to and including 27 June 2021.

It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

  • Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
  • Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
  • Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
  • Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above. So where is the vaccination strategy for children and young people in the UK?

As of 27 June 2021, 48.57% of the “total” UK population had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).


📄 Additional Data

Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 26 June 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
  • Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +5% per day
  • An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 272,608 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 7 March 2021
  • 321 deaths in total in the last 28 days

Days since:

  • 515 days since the first reported UK case
  • 479 days since the first reported UK death

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


📌 Data Sources:







— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


GET THEM INVOLVED:



[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 28 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]