First published in June 2021.






📆 Today’s Summary.

517 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,800,907 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 128,140 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,606 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 18 June 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).


🔍 The Details.

Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 14 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 26,068 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections at 11,131 (the highest 28-day average since 3 March 2021), and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (12).


The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 108.6% in the past 14 days from 102,838 to 214,555 (14-day totals, from 17 June 2021 to 30 June 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 69.9% in the relevant 7-day period.

Latest health care data indicate that 1,720 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 29 June) and 283 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 29 June), and there were 263 new Covid-19 admissions (on the 26 June) – the highest since 31 March 2021, all three increasingly a real concern for our National Health Service, if not our government?


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.


THE NEW ROADMAP:
Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
S̶t̶e̶p̶ ̶4̶:̶ ̶2̶1̶ ̶J̶u̶n̶e̶ ̶🚦̶ ̶F̶i̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶a̶x̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶t̶r̶i̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶l̶a̶y̶e̶d̶
Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted ❓

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PM Boris Johnson. | Number 10

💬 Comment of the Day.

The current vaccination programme is tremendous but it is not a panacea, especially without other preventative measures, including the vaccination of secondary age young people, physical distancing, and ventilation, Dr Joe Pajak rightly wrote on Wednesday.

The big question is, what is this government actually doing to fulfil its primary duty: protect its citizens?

The government wants to believe – and make believe – that the vaccination programme is the only solution to the pandemic in the UK. Its absolute focus on the vaccine means that all other measures are progressively being withdrawn.

Was ending the face mask guidance in schools the right thing to do when the new Delta variant started to take over the number of infections in the country, instead of making sure proper ventilation in class is the rule?

Is ending isolation for school pupils in England who have been in contact with someone testing positive, and replacing it by daily testing, the way forward?

Is using schools like ‘chickenpox parties’ where unvaccinated children and young people get infected to try and reach herd immunity for the rest of the vaccinated population what British parents would consider reasonable and sound?

Parents, are you happy to see your kids sacrificed by this government, when we know that more and more infections in children and young people eventually lead to a Long COVID that could mean years of health issues for them?


Is organising pilot events with tens of thousands of individuals together at concerts, at the Euros or at Silverstone, treated as guineapigs who will infect each other and spread the virus, the best PM Boris Johnson and his government can do?

Talking about those pilot events, what do experts and health professionals think about the latest report on the government’s research on mass events released last week? A profound act of bad faith by the government,” according to Professor Stephen Reicher, Professor of Social Psychology at the University of St Andrews.

“It reveals a scandalous misuse of science as a cover for political decisions which is becoming more and more common in this pandemic and which is putting us all at risk.

“The report ... is a sober and measured document, but it led to ecstatic headlines about mass events having no effect on infections and being safe to reopen.

“The headlines and the political response isn’t just an exaggeration, they directly contradict what the report says.”


Professor Reicher, who is also a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) subcommittee on behavioural science, goes on:

“This is a classic case where the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. And yet the media and the government seem to be taking it as such. That is bad enough. But there is an even bigger problem... The decision on which events will be part of the tests was not made by the scientists but by the government. Let that sink in for a while. The allocation of events to the research program was a political, not a scientific decision...

“And, of course, we saw that when Boris Johnson offered his friend Andrew Lloyd Webber the opportunity to open his new musical by being included as a test event.

“So, the good faith and hard work of excellent scientists to help make us all safer is being exploited by the government. For them, the research isn’t about making things safer in the future, it is a device to open events that are politically expedient, safe or not, here and now.

Whether it is the Euros, or Wimbledon, or Silverstone, the government want them open and do so by calling them test events.

“But to pretend this is about science is dishonest, undemocratic (it avoids any public debate) and discredits science and scientists – misusing our good faith.”

What an absolutely brilliant, reasonable, and sound government!

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Read Professor Reicher’s comment in full now:

Research on mass events: A profound act of bad faith by the government.
What do experts and professionals think about the latest report on the government’s research on mass events?


🧬 Variants News.










Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants:

UK COVID-19 variant updates.
The latest COVID-19 variant updates in the United Kingdom.

📈 Full Data Today

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 30 June 2021

CASES
📈 26,068 daily – highest since 29 January 2021
↗️ +61.5% vs last week
📈 135,074 weekly
↗️ +69.9% vs last week

HOSPITALISATIONS
📉 263 daily
↗️ +24.6% vs last week
📈 1,677 weekly
↗️ +6.4% vs last week

IN-PATIENTS
📈 1,720 daily
↗️ +12.1% vs last week

ON VENTILATION BEDS
📉 283 daily
↗️ +13.2% vs last week

DEATHS
📉 14 daily
↘️️ -26.3% vs last week
📉 113 weekly
↗️ +11.9% vs last week

TOTALS
🔴 4,800,907 positive cases so far (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
⚫️ 128,140 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 30 June 2021)
⚫️ 152,606 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes – Registered up to Friday 18 June 2021.


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 30 June 2021.


💉 Vaccination Data

People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 29 June 2021)

• 💉44,719,762 first doses
📈 84.55% of UK adults (18+)
📈 66.67% of the total UK population

• 💉32,872,450 fully vaccinated
📈 62.15% of UK adults (18+)
📈 49.00% of the total UK population

* Using latest ONS population data published on 25 June 2021

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 29 June 2021.

It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

  • Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
  • Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
  • Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
  • Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above. So where is the vaccination strategy for children and young people in the UK?

As of 29 June 2021, 49.00% of the “total” UK population had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).


📄 Additional Data

Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 26 June 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
  • Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +5% per day
  • An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.

New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 311,660 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 3 March 2021
  • 344 deaths in total in the last 28 days

Days since:

  • 517 days since the first reported UK case
  • 481 days since the first reported UK death

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying  


📌 Data Sources:







— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 30 June 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]