27,989 new coronavirus infections and sadly 22 further deaths due to Covid-19 have been reported in 24 hours, together with 334,375 new infections reported in the past 28 days. The link between infections and hospitalisations has still not been completely broken, Dr Joe Pajak writes.
First published in July 2021.
- 📆 Today’s Summary
- 🔍 The Details
- 💬 Comment of the Day
- 🧬 Variants News
- 📈 Full Data Today
- 💉 Vaccination Data
- 📄 Additional Data
- 📌 Data Sources
📆 Today’s Summary.
518 days since the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first reported in Britain, it has infected 4,828,463 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data); and the virus has been responsible for at least 128,162 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 152,606 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 18 June 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).
🔍 The Details.
Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 22 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19. Transmission of the virus is of increasing concern, with a further 27,989 new infections reported in the last 24 hours, the highest daily reported number of cases since 29 January 2021.
It is worth noting the average number of new coronavirus infections and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 28 days of Covid-19 data: average (28-day) reported daily numbers of coronavirus infections at 11,942 (the highest 28-day average since 2 March 2021), and the average (28-day) reported daily number of coronavirus deaths (13).
The 14-day cumulative number of infections reported has increased by 116.2% in the past 14 days from 107,076 to 231,537 (14-day totals, from 18 June 2021 to 1 July 2021). While, the official 7-day cumulative equivalent reported today shows an increase of 71.8% in the relevant 7-day period.
Latest health care data indicate that 1,795 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds (as of 30 June) and 287 patients are requiring intensive care support (as of 30 June), and there were 259 new Covid-19 admissions (on the 27 June) – all three increasingly a concern for our National Health Service, if not our government?
Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.
THE NEW ROADMAP:
• Step 1: 8 March 🚦 Schools and colleges open fully ✅
• Step 2: 12 April 🚦 Non-essential shops ✅
• Step 3: 17 May 🚦 Social contact, outdoors, travel abroad ✅
• S̶t̶e̶p̶ ̶4̶:̶ ̶2̶1̶ ̶J̶u̶n̶e̶ ̶🚦̶ ̶F̶i̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶a̶x̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶t̶r̶i̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶l̶a̶y̶e̶d̶
• Step 4: 19 July 🚦 “Terminus Date”: Final restrictions to be lifted❓
PM Boris Johnson. | Number 10
💬 Comment of the Day.
Why is the government planning to end social distancing on 19 July when the data from Public Health England (PHE) showed again on Thursday that the number of infections is still on the increase?
The controversial decision looks completely at odds with the data. With 27,989 new positive cases in 24 hours, the UK has just reached its highest new case count since 29 January 2021, during the Alpha variant fuelled winter peak.
There seems to be a huge discrepancy between government perception of the pandemic and reality. Is Westminster in a parallel universe where everything is rosy and the pandemic is over?
“We’ve seen this over and over. The false dichotomy narrative. Public health vs the economy. Close the schools vs open the schools. Now, isolation vs education. All distractions. All are non-dichotomies where both sides being pitched against each other are better off with effective and timely pandemic response.” Dr Nisreen Alwan, Associate Professor in Public Health for Medicine at the University of Southampton, explains.
However, the government’s strategy now seems to have completely turned to herd immunity where we let children catch Covid, let unvaccinated people get infected naturally, and in no time the pandemic will only be a bad but distant memory. Spoiler: they are dreaming!
Is it an ideological view about the pandemic? The signatories of the infamous Great Barrington Declaration, some of them close to ministers, had in mind that young people and the less vulnerable should be allowed to catch the virus so that those who are not vulnerable get to resume life as normal. Is it Saving Private Economy, then?
On Thursday, Professor Peter English, consultant in public health and health protection in the South East of England, wrote: “It seems that about 1 in 100 cases (Covid in children) require hospital admission, and a much higher proportion gets long Covid. And it will take years to know about the long term consequences which could be considerable given the brain/lung/other damage caused by Covid-19.”
Is this government ready to take that risk? If so, why doesn’t Boris Johnson address the nation on 5 July and tell parents, grandparents, children, young people, the teachers, healthcare workers, key workers – everyone... Tell the British people the truth, for once. That it is his decision that, in order to reach population immunity, on 19 July all restrictions must be withdrawn and children will not get the jab. That it means all of them will be deliberately infected with Covid-19 whilst in contact with others in the classrooms. That tens of thousands of them will be hospitalised, and some might even die, while others will have long COVID for years. That their families too will be infected and some of them will also be hospitalised, and some might die, even among vaccinated individuals because the Delta variant is stronger than previous variants.
“The current government narratives are based on the value system that loss of health and life is inevitable, and that we can only delay this and not prevent it. None of this is true and we need to call this out,” Dr Deepti Gurdasani, Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology at Queen Mary University of London, wrote a few weeks ago.
Why does the government behave like the pandemic is over? Is it because the Tories do not really care about children?
Is yet another Brexit posture? “We are the great people of independent Great Britain and we shall never surrender to any enemy, whether it be the EU, Germany or Covid! Facing our enemy, we shall sacrifice in fight in the name of our great nation.” The virus does not care about your politics!
Are they just ignorant of science, in the same way they have been ignorant of experts during, and since the Brexit referendum in 2016? Remember Michael Gove’s famous claim? “I think the people of this country have had enough of experts.” Don’t be surprised if you soon hear Boris Johnson say something similar. “I think the people of this country have had enough of evidence, data, and science.”
Chief Science Officer Patrick Vallance and PM Boris Johnson at the Council of Science. |
Or... is it simply because the UK is running out of new vaccine doses?
The mismatch between government perception of COVID-19 and reality must be fixed as soon as possible so the UK doesn’t end up making yet more disastrous mistakes that will mean more sacrifices, and cost even more lives.
Come back to Earth, Prime Minister. And tell us the truth.
🧬 Variants News.
Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants:
📈 Full Data Today
UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 1 July 2021
📈 27,989 daily – highest since 29 January 2021
↗️ +67.6% vs last week
📈 146,360 weekly
↗️ +71.8% vs last week
📉 259 daily
↗️ +26.9% vs last week
📈 1,735 weekly
↗️ +11.4% vs last week
📈 1,795 daily
↗️ +20.7% vs last week
📈 12,883 weekly
• ON VENTILATION BEDS
📈 287 daily
↗️ +16.6% vs last week
📈 2,148 weekly
📈 22 daily
↗️ +4.7% vs last week
📈 114 weekly
↗️ +10.7% vs last week
🔴 4,828,463 positive cases so far (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
⚫️ 128,162 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 1 July 2021)
⚫️ 152,606 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes – Registered up to Friday 18 June 2021.
7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 1 July 2021.
💉 Vaccination Data
People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 30 June 2021)
• 💉44,860,978 first doses
📈 84.82% of UK adults (18+)
📈 66.88% of the total UK population
• 💉33,048,199 fully vaccinated
📈 62.48% of UK adults (18+)
📈 49.27% of the total UK population
* Using latest ONS population data published on 25 June 2021
People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 30 June 2021.
It is important to note the full range of population data, given that the focus has been on vaccinating those aged 18 and above, and to bear in mind that there is unlikely to be any scientific evidence that the virus draws a line at age 18 years.
Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.
- Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
- Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
- Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
- Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)
We need therefore to challenge politicians who present the “vaccination” figures with an almost casual, over-emphasis of the percentages vaccinated. The data are always currently quoted for those in the population aged 18 and above. So where is the vaccination strategy for children and young people in the UK?
As of 30 June 2021, 49.27% of the “total” UK population had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
📄 Additional Data
Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 26 June 2021)
- Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4
- Latest growth rate range for England +3% to +5% per day
- An R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people. A growth rate of between 3% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 6% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.
To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.
New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:
- 334,375 new cases in total 🦠 highest 28-day infections since 2 March 2021
- 350 deaths in total in the last 28 days
- 518 days since the first reported UK case
- 482 days since the first reported UK death
These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.
📌 Data Sources:
- Daily summary: Coronavirus in the UK | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) NHS Advice | PMP Magazine
- Variants: distribution of cases data | Public Health England
- Vaccination Data | UK Government
- What’s new | UK Government
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK | ONS
- United Kingdom population mid-year estimate | ONS
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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 1 July 2021. | The author writes in a personal capacity.]