111 more lives were lost due to Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, while 33,904 new coronavirus infections were also reported. There have also been 211,238 new virus infections reported in the past 7 days.


First published in August 2021.






📆 Today’s Summary.

🦠 33,904 cases️ ↗️
📈 314.9 cases/100k ↗️
📈 211,238 cases in 7 days ↗️

🏥 773 hospitalisations ↔️
🏥️ 6,321 patients in hospital ↗️
🛏️ 925 in ICU beds ↗️
🕯️ 111 deaths ↘️

🕯️ 154,811 total deaths
🩺 945,000 long COVID
💉 40.9m fully vaccinated (61.10% of UK population)

LABELS:
↗️ Increasing | ↘️ Decreasing | ↔️ Unchanged


566 days since the first infection due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus was reported in Britain, and 530 days since the first reported death, the virus has now been responsible for infecting 6,355,887 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data) and responsible for at least 131,260 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result).

Official data currently indicate there have been 154,811 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 6 August 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).









🔍 The Details.

Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that a further 111 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19, while transmission of the virus continues to be of concern, with further 33,904 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the total number of new coronavirus infections, and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 7 days of Covid-19 data. The total number of coronavirus infections reported in the last 7 days has risen today to 211,238 while the total reported number of coronavirus deaths in the last 7 days has risen to 655. This would equate on average to 93.6 deaths each day.

If this was to be the “new normal” for daily deaths caused by Covid-19, then annually this would equate to around 34,154 deaths.

What is normal about that?


Latest health care data indicate that there were 773 Covid-19 hospital admissions reported on 14 August 2021, while 6,321 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds as of 17 August 2021 (the highest number reported since 17 March 2021), and 925 patients are requiring intensive care support as of 17 August 2021 (also the highest number reported since 17 March 2021) – all three measures an increasing concern for our over-stretched National Health Service.

The NHS impact of a high number of infections and a high number of hospital admissions:
📈 Bed shortages
📈 A&E attendances
📈 Operations cancelled
📈 Every day another challenge


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

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🐦 Tweets of the Day.






📌 Must-read Today.

Ministers accused of putting staff at risk by not wearing masks in Commons
Boris Johnson and most of his frontbench choose not to cover faces in packed parliamentary chamber
One rule for us, chumocracy for them.
Whilst they intend to deny people their rights to financial security, pensions, health, and welfare services, the Conservatives in government organised a VIP channel for cronies to access government contracts and gain billions on the public purse during the pandemic.
Vaccination and ventilation for children – Government’s dither and delay is failing children.
The UK government’s dither and delay is failing to protect our nation from the unfettered transmission of Covid-19 among a mostly unvaccinated school-age population, and the threat which resultant variants may pose to the vaccination strategy, worldwide.
Petition: Offer the Covid-19 vaccine to under 18s
Now that all adults are being offered the vaccine, most youth have so far remained unvaccinated, and unsurprisingly, the delta variant seems to disproportionately affect youth (likely as they are unvaccinated), significantly more than adults. The UK Government must take action to address this.





🧬 Variants News.

(Sequencing as of 17 August 2021)

Multiple Delta variants now spreading in the UK. They are subtypes of Delta. Is this the result of the Government’s herd immunity strategy (opening everything, no restrictions, no vaccination for the 12-15-year-olds...) that many scientists and health experts had warned could lead to the UK becoming a variant factory? At the moment, 8 of the 10 new Delta variants that are circulating in the country appear to have originated in the UK, the other two are from Israel and the United States.

In a series of tweets on Wednesday, Professor Christina Pagel, Professor of Operational Research at University College London (UCL), and a member of Independent SAGE, explained the situation with one particular Delta subtype, the AY.3 variant:

“Various people have been raising the variant AY.3 as a potential problem. Definitely the first clear sign of a potentially worrying variant here in a while.

“First what is AY.3? It’s a subtype of Delta and is most prevalent in the US where it is about 9% of their cases. Very early results from India suggest that it is more immune evasive than the “original” Delta.

“Looking at the “original” Delta in England from Sanger data, you can see that in recent weeks its total dominance has – very, very slightly – dropped.


“Which wouldn’t necessarily be a concern – except that this drop is almost entirely due to a rapid increase in AY.3.


Looking at it regionally, AY.3 is increasing in most regions, particularly in Yorks and Humber, East Midlands, North East and East of England.

In the US, AY.3 has also increased rapidly, but alongside Delta, so it’s hard to say if it’s outcompeting Delta or just outcompeting previous variants.

“It is still present in very small numbers in England and won’t be making a visible impact on daily case numbers. In the US, it is most prevalent in the Southern states and those states are seeing increasing cases.

There is lots we don’t know about AY.3. It ‘might’ be more transmissible than Delta, it ‘might’ be more immune evasive. Or its recent growth might be just chance or sampling. But we’ve seen this before and so we should start planning on what to do and learn more about AY.3.”


#DeltaVariant

📈 40,157 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↘️️ 47.53% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY4

📈 37,261 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 44.11% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY6

📈 2,536 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 3.00% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY5

📈 1,903 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 2.25% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY12

📈 959 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 1.14% of all sequenced cases


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %






























Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants:
UK COVID-19 variant updates.
The latest COVID-19 variant updates in the United Kingdom.




📈 Full Data Today

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 18 August 2021

CASES
📈 33,904 daily
↗️ +14.5% vs last week
📈 211,238 weekly
↗️ +7.6% vs last week
📈 314.9 per 100k population daily
↗️ +7.6% vs last week

King’s College Covid Symptom Study
CASE ESTIMATE
📈 43,693 daily

HOSPITALISATIONS
📉 773 daily – Unchanged since 14 August
↗️ +7.5% vs last week
📈 5,623 weekly
↗️ +4.3% vs last week

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL
📈 6,321 daily – highest since 17 March (6,585)
↗️ +5.6% vs last week

ON VENTILATION BEDS
📈 925 daily – highest since 17 March (925)
↗️ +5.8% vs last week

DEATHS
📉 111 daily
↗️ +6.7% vs last week
📈 655 weekly
↗️ +7.9% vs last week


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %



TOTALS
🔴 6,355,887 positive cases so far (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
⚫️ 131,260 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 18 August 2021)
⚫️ 154,811 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes – Registered up to Friday 6 August 2021


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 18 August 2021.





💉 Vaccination Data

People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 17 August 2021)

• 💉47,413,242 first doses
📈 89.64% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 70.68% of total UK population

• 💉40,987,846 fully vaccinated
📈 77.50% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 75.41% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 61.10% of total UK population

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 17 August 2021.

Change announced on the UK Covid-19 dashboard: “On Thursday 19 August, headline vaccination uptake by report date for the UK and nations will be updated to include ages 16 and 17 in the denominator.”

This change, at last, acknowledges the importance of presenting the vaccination data appropriately. The next step would be to quote vaccination percentages relating to the TOTAL UK population.

In summary, as of 17 August 2021:

  • 61.10% of the total UK population (all ages) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 75.41% of the UK population (aged 16 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 77.50% of the UK population (aged 18 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

● Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
● Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
● Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
● Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

(Source ▪ ONS)




📄 Additional Data

Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 13 August 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 0.8 to 1.0
  • Latest growth rate range for England -4% to 0% per day
  • An R value between 0.8 and 1.0 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people. A growth rate of between -4% and 0% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat, shrinking by up to 4% every day. These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 two to three weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.


Estimates of the percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19:

According to the latest ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus remained the same in England (1 in 75) and in Northern Ireland (1 in 55), while in Wales it increased (1 in 220 – was 1 in 230), but decreased in Scotland (1 in 190 – was 1 in 120).






New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 805,351 new cases in total in the last 28 days
  • 2,330 deaths in the last 28 days – the highest 28-day number of deaths since 4 April 2021

Days since:

  • 566 days since the first reported UK case
  • 530 days since the first reported UK death

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.








📚 Data Sources:








📈 Full Daily UK #COVID19 Charts & Comments via #TodayInCovid at: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/tag/uk-covid-19-chart/

🧬 Full #Variants Sequencing Data at https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/uk-covid-19-variant-updates/

🦠 Everything #COVID19 at https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/covid19/

🗃️ Sources: @CovidGenomicsUK | @PHE_uk | @ONS

🧮 Special thanks: @JoePajak




— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 18 August 2021. | The authors write in a personal capacity.]