A further 104 lives were lost due to Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, while 32,058 new coronavirus infections were also reported. There have also been 221,888 new virus infections reported in the past 7 days. It is August, have schools been equipped to ensure correct ventilation arrangements for September?


First published in August 2021.







📆 Today’s Summary.

🦠 32,058 cases️ ↘️️
📈 330.8 cases/100k ↗️
📈 221,888 cases in 7 days ↗️

🏥 948 hospitalisations ↗️
🏥️ 6,441 patients in hospital ↗️
🛏️ 928 in ICU beds ↗️
🕯️ 104 deaths ↘️

🕯️ 154,811 total deaths
💉 41.4m fully vaccinated
💉 61.86% of UK population fully vaccinated

LABELS:
↗️ Increasing | ↘️ Decreasing | ↔️ Unchanged


569 days since the first infection due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus was reported in Britain, and 533 days since the first reported death, the virus has now been responsible for infecting 6,460,930 people in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data) and responsible for at least 131,591 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result).

Official data currently indicate there have been 154,811 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 6 August 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).









🔍 The Details.

Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that a further 104 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19, while transmission of the virus continues to be of concern, with further 32,058 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

It is worth noting the total number of new coronavirus infections, and deaths due to the virus, reported in the last 7 days of Covid-19 data. The total number of coronavirus infections reported in the last 7 days has risen today to 221,888 while the total reported number of coronavirus deaths in the last 7 days has risen to 699. This equates on average to 99.9 deaths each of the past 7 days.

If this was to be the “new normal” for daily deaths caused by Covid-19, then annually this would equate to around 36,448 deaths.

What is normal about that?


Latest health care data indicate that there were 948 Covid-19 hospital admissions reported on 17 August 2021 (the highest number reported since 22 July 2021), while 6,441 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds as of 19 August 2021 (the highest number reported since 17 March 2021), and 928 patients are requiring intensive care support as of 19 August 2021 (the highest number reported since 16 March 2021) – all three measures an increasing concern for our over-stretched National Health Service.

The NHS impact of a high number of infections and a high number of hospital admissions:
📈 Bed shortages
📈 A&E attendances
📈 Operations cancelled
📈 Every day another challenge


Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

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⏰ Latest Changes.

  • If you have had contact with someone who has tested positive – ENGLAND

If you are fully vaccinated, or under 18, you no longer need to self-isolate after close contact with someone who has COVID-19. If you have symptoms you should still isolate and take a PCR test. Find out when to self-isolate and what to do on the NHS website.

  • Vaccinations for young peopleENGLAND

16 and 17-year-olds can now get their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. They will be contacted and invited by the NHS but cannot book online.

  • International travel UK WIDE

If you have been fully vaccinated in the UK, United States or most of Europe, you do not need to quarantine or take a day 8 test when returning from amber list countries.







💬 Comment of the Day.

Along came the Delta variant, more transmissible than the original. Such that the number of people needing to be vaccinated to achieve population immunity has risen... well beyond previous expectations. Some scientists now suggest that a level of 90% of the population vaccinated is needed to stop the spread, or maybe never...

A growing concern though is what has been reported by Bloomberg, that vaccinated people appear to be getting Covid-19 at a high rate. Exactly how often, or how likely they are to spread the virus, isn’t clear yet. And are they more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought?

A number of case studies provide different pictures of breakthrough infections. Variables include: whether Delta was present, what percentage of individuals were vaccinated, etc. All make it hard to compare results and find patterns though, and there is also a lack of good clinical data at the moment.

It is time the UK thought long and hard about schools.

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🐦 Tweets of the Day.






📌 Must-read Today.

We want our children in school but it has to be safe.
Parents, teachers, journalists, MPs, watch this devoted, loving mother, eloquently expressing concern about children returning to school in September. Parents such as Lisa desperately need to be heard. What is the government doing?
The Vaccinated Are Worried and Scientists Don’t Have Answers
Christina Pagel: Schools—a gaping hole in the English covid strategy - The BMJ
England is an anomaly in not undertaking any of the three strategies to prevent transmission in schools, says Christina Pagel The highly transmissible Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 is now dominant [...]More...
Child Covid-19 hospitalizations soar, filling pediatric wings, data show
The U.S. faces another peak in child hospitalizations as the delta variant hits communities hesitant to get vaccinated.
Petition: Offer the Covid-19 vaccine to under 18s
Now that all adults are being offered the vaccine, most youth have so far remained unvaccinated, and unsurprisingly, the delta variant seems to disproportionately affect youth (likely as they are unvaccinated), significantly more than adults. The UK Government must take action to address this.





🧬 Variants News.

(Sequencing as of 19 August 2021)


#DeltaVariant

📈 39,715 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 48.07% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY4

📉 36,123 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↘️ 43.72% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY6

📉 2,500 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 3.03% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY5

📉 1,851 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↘️ 2.24% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaAY12

📉 949 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 1.15% of all sequenced cases


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %












Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants:
UK COVID-19 variant updates.
The latest COVID-19 variant updates in the United Kingdom.




📈 Full Data Today

UK COVID-19 data 🦠 reported on 21 August 2021

CASES
📉 32,058 daily
↗️ +8.6% vs last week
📈 221,888 weekly
↗️ +10.4% vs last week
📈 330.8 per 100k population daily Highest since 27 July (342.6)
↗️ +10.4% vs last week

King’s College Covid Symptom Study
CASE ESTIMATE
📈 48,737 daily

HOSPITALISATIONS
📈 948 daily
↗️ +6.6% vs last week
📈 5,869 weekly
↗️ +6.6% vs last week

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL – Unchanged
📈 6,441 daily – Highest since 17 March (6,585)
↗️ +8.7% vs last week

ON VENTILATION BEDS – Unchanged
📈 928 daily – Highest since 16 March (968)
↗️ +5.2% vs last week

DEATHS
📉 104 daily
↗️ +11.8% vs last week
📈 699 weekly
↗️ +14.0% vs last week


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %



TOTALS
🔴 6,460,930 positive cases so far to date (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
⚫️ 131,591 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result (for COVID-19 reported up to 20 August 2021)
⚫️ 154,811 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes – Registered up to Friday 6 August 2021


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 21 August 2021.





💉 Vaccination Data

People vaccinated in the UK: (up to and including 20 August 2021)

• 💉47,573,794 first doses
📈 89.95% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 87.53% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 70.92% of total UK population

• 💉41,496,576 fully vaccinated
📈 78.46% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 76.35% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 61.86% of total UK population

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 20 August 2021.


In summary, as of 20 August 2021:

  • 61.86% of the total UK population (all ages) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 76.35% of the UK population (aged 16 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 78.46% of the UK population (aged 18 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

● Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
● Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
● Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
● Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

(Source ▪ ONS)




📄 Additional Data

Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 20 August 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 0.9 to 1.2
  • Latest growth rate range for England +1% to +3% per day
  • An R value between 0.9 and 1.2 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 9 and 12 other people. A growth rate of between -1% and +3% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat, shrinking by up to 1% every day or growing by up to 3% every day. (These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 two to three weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.)

To better understand the state of the epidemic in the UK, the UK government recommend “focusing on indicators for the 4 nations of the UK individually, rather than an average value across the UK.” Estimates of the R value and growth rate for different nations can be found via this link.


Estimates of the percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19:

Latest ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey data showing COVID-19 infections have decreased in England and Scotland but increased in Wales in the week ending 14 August 2021. The trend was uncertain in Northern Ireland in the same week.

The estimated percentage of the community population (those not in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings) that had COVID-19 in the latest week was:

  • 1.28% (1 in 80 people) in England
  • 0.77% (1 in 130 people) in Wales
  • 1.92% (1 in 50 people) in Northern Ireland
  • 0.49% (1 in 200 people) in Scotland

The ONS explains that across England, infections decreased for those in school Years 7 to 11 and those aged 25 to 34 years and 70 years and over. The positivity rate increased in those aged 35 to 49 years and the trend was uncertain for all other age groups. Infections have also decreased in the West Midlands, East Midlands and North East of England in the most recent week. The positivity rate increased in the East of England and levelled off in the South East and London. Trends were uncertain in all other regions.






New infections and deaths in the last 28 days:

  • 803,205 new cases in total in the last 28 days
  • 2,427 deaths in the last 28 days – the highest 28-day number of deaths since 2 April 2021

Days since:

  • 569 days since the first reported UK case
  • 533 days since the first reported UK death

These data, and trends, are shared to focus some light on the situation. We must never forget the data represent real people suffering, real people dying.








📚 Data Sources:








📈 Full Daily UK #COVID19 Charts & Comments via #TodayInCovid: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/tag/uk-covid-19-chart/

🧬 Full #Variants Sequencing Data: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/uk-covid-19-variant-updates/

🦠 Everything #COVID19: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/covid19/

🗃️ Sources: @CovidGenomicsUK | @PHE_uk | @ONS

🧮 Special thanks: @JoePajak & #NHS




— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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[This piece was first published in PMP Magazine on 21 August 2021. | The authors write in a personal capacity.]