Brexit. It looks hopeless. But look closer, and you will see signs that the edifice is splitting.


First published in September 2021.


This is my prediction for Brexit.

It won’t be quick. Events, experiences and reporting will shift positions, in spasmodic, jerky ways, but inevitable – you can already see this beginning.

But by 2025, Leave voters will have split into 4 distinct groups.

  1. Brexit ultras — Like old reds observing the horror of Stalin’s Russia, and insisting dictatorial communism is wonderful, it just hasn’t been done properly yet. For them, the REAL Brexit is always happening soon; we just have to believe harder and sacrifice more.
  2. Brexit denialistsBrexit is perfect already. All the food shortages, rampant inflation, stagnant economy, loss of global influence, and collapsing industries are because of wind turbines, insufficient flags, women in the military, and because we let gay couples stay in B&Bs.
  3. Brexit regretfulsA small, but growing band who recognise they were conned. Not their fault – we all fall for fraudsters sometimes, which is why fraudsters still exist. It is hard to feel foolish and alone, but the more there are, the louder and angrier they will become.
  4. Brexit magicians — They will pretend it is all still 100% Brexit, whilst behind their backs, they move us closer to alignment with the EU, because there is no alternative. This will be the dominant group of Tory MPs in 3 years. Re-join? Never! But end up exactly the same? Sure!

Other factors will play out. It will be a truly awful 2 years – full Brexit border controls haven’t started yet, and we are already out of food. We will have inflation, no growth (stagflation), and a wave of house repossessions. This will change a lot of moods.

And...

Murdoch is 90. One of the Barclay Brothers is dead and the other is 86. The likelihood of them still poisoning the nation’s moral well in 2025 is small, and shrinking. Others will try to take their place, of course, but their magnetic pull on the focus of UK news will vanish.

It seems hopeless: like no minds are changing, and we are trapped like this.

But look closer, and you will see signs that the edifice is splitting. The pressure of reality is simply too great. Except for Nigel, of course. For him, the real fight for Brexit hasn’t even begun.

Except for Nigel, of course. For him, the real fight for Brexit hasn’t even begun




— AUTHOR —

Russell Jones, Designer, data analyst, blogger.


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[This piece was first published as a Twitter thread and turned into the above article on 2 September 2021 with the purpose of reaching a larger audience. It has been minorly edited and corrected, and published with the author’s consent. | The author of the tweets writes in a personal capacity.]

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