185 deaths due to Covid-19 and 26,628 new coronavirus infections reported in 24 hours in the UK. In the last 7 days, 230,783 coronavirus infections and 963 deaths – on average 138 deaths each day. If this was to be the “new normal”, we would have 50,214 deaths annually. Is it not time for Plan B?


First published in September 2021.








📆 #TodayInCOVID
Summary 14-Sep-2021


🦠 CASES
26,628 in 24h ↘️
230,783 in 7 days ↘️
971,262 in 28 days ↘️
344.0 per 100k ↘️
▪  7,282,810 so far

🏥 HOSPITAL
1,009 admissions in 24h ↘️
7,032 in 7 days ↗️
8,413 patients ↗️
1,056 in ICU beds ↗️

🕯️ DEATHS
185 in 24h ↗️
963 in 7 days ↘️
3,297 in 28 days ↗️️
157,669 so far

💉 VACCINATION
44.1m received two doses
65.75% of the UK population received two doses

®️ 0.91.1 in England ↔️

LABELS:
↗️ Increasing | ↘️ Decreasing | ↔️ Unchanged








Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that a further 185 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19, while transmission of the virus continues to be of concern, with a further 26,628 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

  • The total number of coronavirus infections reported in the last 7 days was 230,783.
  • 963 deaths due to coronavirus have been reported in the last 7 days. This equates on average to around 138 deaths each of the past 7 days. If this was to be the “new normal” for daily deaths caused by Covid-19, then annually this would equate to around 50,214 deaths. What is normal about that? What is acceptable about this potential level of death?
  • Latest health care data indicate that there were 1,009 Covid-19 hospital admissions reported on 9 September 2021.
  • 8,413 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds as of 13 September 2021 – the highest since 10 March 2021.
  • 1,056 patients are requiring intensive care support as of 13 September 2021 – all three measures are an increasing concern for our over-stretched NHS.

SO FAR:

  • 593 days since the first infection due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus was reported in Britain.
  • 557 days since the first reported death.
  • Coronavirus has now been responsible for infecting over 7 million people (7,282,810 reported, to be precise) in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data)
  • The virus is responsible for at least 134,446 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 157,669 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 3 September 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

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  • Autumn and winter plan 2021 – ENGLAND

The government has set out its COVID-19 autumn and winter plan.

  • First dose vaccinations for young people – ENGLAND

Young people aged 12 to 15 will soon be offered a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

  • Third vaccine dose boosters for vulnerable people – ENGLAND

People over 50, care home residents, health and social care workers, and those aged 16 to 49 with severely weakened immune systems will be offered a third COVID-19 vaccine dose.








  • COVID deaths increased for the 12th consecutive week

According to the latest ONS data, in the week ending 3 September, of the 10,307 deaths from all causes (8.7% above the average), 781 deaths were registered involving COVID-19, i.e. 1 in 13 deaths (7.6%). The percentage of deaths from COVID-19 was the highest of all causes since the week ending 19 March 2021.


Number of deaths registered by week, UK, week ending 8 January 2021 to week ending 3 September 2021







Coronavirus Briefing. | Number 10


At Tuesday’s Number 10 briefing, Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) for England, talked about the pressure the NHS is already under: We are entering the winter with this reasonably high level. It wouldn’t take many doubling times to get into trouble. And, therefore, people still need to take this disease very seriously.”

And, indeed, newly published modelling from government scientific advisers on the SAGE advisory committee warns PM Boris Johnson and his government not to wait too long before bringing back restrictions to protect people from a winter surge of coronavirus infections.

“The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth as a result of changes in behaviour. It is also a time of significant uncertainty given the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays, the possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19, and several policy areas likely to become clearer.

“Until uncertainties resolve and changes in transmission are fully reflected in data – likely in three to four weeks’ time – [SAGE]’s medium-term scenarios can be used to consider the next couple of months. These suggest there is the potential for another large wave of hospitalisations.

“While the relationship between cases and hospitalisations has changed due to vaccination, increasing cases remain the earliest warning sign that hospital admissions are likely to rise. It also remains the case that the earlier that interventions are brought in to curb growth, the lower prevalence is kept, reducing the direct COVID-19 burden and reducing the risk of needing more stringent measures to quickly reduce transmission.”

Read the latest SAGE advice in full.


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‘One rule for them’: Boris Johnson criticised for maskless cabinet meeting
PM under fire as senior Tories forgo masks on same day he urges public to wear them in crowded spaces
SAGE suggests “a basket of measures” to prevent a very difficult winter.
The SAGE group of experts suggests “a basket of measures” which could keep COVID-19 under control if enacted early enough by the government.
UK Covid vaccinations for children aged 12-15: what you need to know
Why have the chief medical officers said children need a jab? What are the risks and benefits?
11% of Israeli children infected with virus suffer from ‘long COVID’
***

Petition: Offer the Covid-19 vaccine to under 18s
Now that all adults are being offered the vaccine, most youth have so far remained unvaccinated, and unsurprisingly, the delta variant seems to disproportionately affect youth (likely as they are unvaccinated), significantly more than adults. The UK Government must take action to address this.
Petition: Funding for ventilation in all school/college/uni classrooms
As a parent, it has become of increasing concern that the Government has not yet committed to funding increased ventilation in classrooms, in the form of approved HEPA air filter systems/air purifiers.This petition is to ask the Government to immediately fund these in schools/colleges/unis.






🧬 Variants News (Sequencing as of 14 September 2021)

#DeltaAY4

📈 80,448 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 74.96% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaVariant

📈 16,657
↘️ 15.52%

#DeltaAY5

📈 3,850
↘️ 3.59%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %





Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants.






📈 UK COVID-19 data (reported on 14 September 2021)

CASES 🦠
📉 26,628 daily
↘️ -29.0% vs last week
📉 230,783 in 7 days
↘️ -14.3%
📉 971,262 in 28 days
↗️ +2.5%
📉 344.0 per 100k
↘️ -14.3%

King’s College ESTIMATE 🦠
📈 46,994 daily cases

HOSPITALISATIONS 🏥
📉 1,009 daily
↗️ +8.5%
📈 7,032 in 7 days
↗️ +5.0%

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL 🏥
📈 8,413 daily – Highest since 10 March
↗️ +4.9%

PATIENTS IN ICU BEDS 🛏️
📈 1,056 daily
↘️ -0.6%

DEATHS 🕯️
📈 185 daily
↘️ -11.5%
📉 963 in 7 days
↗️ +1.6%
📈 3,297 in 28 days – Highest since 29 March
↗️ +10.6%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ⏸️ Unchanged figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %



LAST 28 DAYS 🗓️

🦠 971,262 new cases
🕯️ 3,297 deaths – Highest 28-day total since 29 March


DAYS SINCE 🗓️

🦠 593 days since the first reported UK case
🕯️ 557 days since the first reported UK death


TOTALS 🧮
🦠 7,282,810 positive cases so far to date (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
🕯️ 134,446 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result
🕯️ 157,669 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes– Registered up to Friday 3 September 2021


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 14 September 2021.






💉 Vaccination UK (up to and including 13 September 2021)

💉48,458,700 first doses
📈 91.62% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 89.15% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 72.24% of total UK population

💉44,108,746 second doses
📈 83.40% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 81.15% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 65.75% of total UK population

Estimates suggest that around 12 million children in the UK – aged 15 and below – remain unvaccinated.

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 13 September 2021.


In summary, as of 13 September 2021:

  • 65.75% of the total UK population (all ages) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 81.15% of the UK population (aged 16 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 83.40% of the UK population (aged 18 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses)

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

● Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
● Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
● Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
● Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

(Source ▪ ONS)






Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 10 September 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 0.9 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: -1% to +1% per day
  • An R value between 0.9 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 9 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between -1% and +1% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat, shrinking by up to 1% every day or growing by up to 1% every day. (These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 from 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.)

Population testing positive for COVID-19:

According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey data, COVID-19 infections remained level in England in the week ending 3 September. In Scotland, however, infections increased and were the highest the ONS recorded so far (the Infection Survey began to cover Scotland in September 2020). During the same period, in Northern Ireland, the trend in infections was uncertain, while in Wales, infections increased.






Stringency Index:

The Stringency Index records the strictness of government policies across the world. It is a composite measure of nine Covid response metrics: school closures, workplace closures, cancellation of public events, restrictions on public gatherings, closures of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, restrictions on internal movements, and international travel controls.











📰 #COVID19 in #TomorrowsPapersToday

Check out more front pages:

The Guardian

The Independent

The i

Daily Mirror

The Times

The Telegraph

Daily Mail

Daily Express

South Wales Evening Post

Daily Record

Read more front pages every day in PMP Magazine.








📚 Data Sources:








📈 Full Daily UK #COVID19 Charts & Comments via #TodayInCovid: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/tag/uk-covid-19-chart/

🧬 Full #Variants Sequencing Data: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/uk-covid-19-variant-updates/

🦠 Everything #COVID19: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/covid19/

🗃️ Sources: @CovidGenomicsUK | @PHE_uk | @ONS

🧮 Special thanks: @JoePajak & #NHS




— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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