201 deaths due to Covid-19 and 30,597 new coronavirus infections reported in 24 hours in the UK. 973 deaths in 7 days – on average 139 deaths each day that would represent 50,735 deaths annually. As Sir Patrick Vallance rightly said on Tuesday, experience of battling the virus showed “you have to go earlier than you think you want to, you have to go harder than you think you want to.”


First published in September 2021.








📆 #TodayInCOVID
Summary 15-Sep-2021


🦠 CASES
30,597 in 24h ↗️
222,405 in 7 days ↘️
967,955 in 28 days ↘️
331.5 per 100k ↘️
▪  7,312,683 so far

🏥 HOSPITAL
836 admissions in 24h ↘️
6,930 in 7 days ↘️
8,340 patients ↘️
1,060 in ICU beds ↗️

🕯️ DEATHS
201 in 24h ↗️
973 in 7 days ↘️
3,387 in 28 days ↗️️
157,669 so far

💉 VACCINATION
44.1m received two doses
65.85% of the UK population received two doses

®️ 0.91.1 in England ↔️

LABELS:
↗️ Increasing | ↘️ Decreasing | ↔️ Unchanged








Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that a further 201 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19, while transmission of the virus continues to be of concern, with a further 30,597 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

  • The total number of coronavirus infections reported in the last 7 days was 222,405, while in the last 28 days 976,955 infections have been reported.
  • 973 deaths due to coronavirus have been reported in the last 7 days. This equates on average to around 139 deaths each of the past 7 days. If this was to be the “new normal” for daily deaths caused by Covid-19, then annually this would equate to around 50,735 deaths. What is normal about that? What is acceptable about this potential level of death? The vaccination programme has had a very positive impact, but what will bring down the level of infections given where we now are?
  • Latest health care data indicate that there were 836 Covid-19 hospital admissions reported on 11 September 2021.
  • 8,340 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds as of 14 September 2021.
  • 1,060 patients are requiring intensive care support as of 14 September 2021 – all three measures are an increasing concern for our over-stretched NHS.

SO FAR:

  • 594 days since the first infection due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus was reported in Britain.
  • 558 days since the first reported death.
  • Coronavirus has now been responsible for infecting over 7.3 million people (7,312,683 reported, to be precise) in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data)
  • The virus is responsible for at least 134,647 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 157,669 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 3 September 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

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  • Autumn and winter plan 2021 – ENGLAND

The government has set out its COVID-19 autumn and winter plan.

  • First dose vaccinations for young people – ENGLAND

Young people aged 12 to 15 will soon be offered a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

  • Third vaccine dose boosters for vulnerable people – ENGLAND

People over 50, care home residents, health and social care workers, and those aged 16 to 49 with severely weakened immune systems will be offered a third COVID-19 vaccine dose.






Sajid Javid. | UK Parliament


  • Sajid Javid vs the GPs

As the big distraction of the day – the government reschuffle – was taking place under the media spotlights on Wednesday, in the House of Commons, the Health Secretary Sajid Javid urged GPs to start seeing patients face-to-face.

“I think everyone can understand why during the height of the pandemic that GPs couldn’t provide access in the normal way.

“But we’re way past that now, life is starting to return almost back to completely normal and as that is happening it should be happening in our GP surgeries too, and more GPs should be offering face-to-face access.”

The British Medical Association (BMA) didn’t take long to respond to Javid’s claims:

“Sajid Javid told parliament today that GPs must ‘start operating in the way they did before the pandemic and offering face-to-face appointments to everyone who would like one’, and that ‘more GPs should be offering face-to-face access and we intend to do a lot more about it.’

Comments like this show how far removed he is from the reality of what is happening in General Practices – as well as highlighting a lack of agreement within Government; the PM says the pandemic is ‘far from over’ while the Secretary of State claims ‘life is starting to return almost to completely normal.’

“The Health Secretary also claimed he is working with the BMA – this is simply untrue. Our letters, outlining what we believe is needed to help GPs, have gone unanswered. We would very much welcome the opportunity to have frank discussions with him about the current GP crisis.

To suggest a return to a pre-pandemic way of working is as impractical as it is unworkable for GPs. They need to see patients as safely as possible, often in premises unfit to do so and without anywhere near enough staff.

“Our Support Your Surgery petition is calling for the support and resource from Government that GPs need to address the huge waiting lists. Add your name and share to support our call.”

Add your name to the petition and share it to support the BMA’s call.






Cabinet meeting. | Number 10


  • Plan A should be Plan B

Tackling Covid-19 this winter will be done through vaccinations and testing (Government’s Plan A) according to the prime minister, but if the NHS faces unsustainable pressure Plan B will kick in.

Let’s be clear, the NHS is experiencing that extreme pressure, now, across the UK. Plan B should therefore be Plan A!

  • What leadership?

The behaviour of the cabinet displays deplorable complacency, and a lack of leadership. Their actions have an impact on people’s behaviours; and on friends, colleagues, families, and constituents, all of whom are potentially virus recipients and/or virus transmitters.

A reshuffle is a convenient method to divert people’s attention from what should really make the front pages.


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More than 4m stopped wearing masks this summer in Britain, ONS data shows
Report comes as government scientific adviser describes Tuesday’s maskless cabinet meeting as ‘toxic’ for public adherence
SAGE suggests “a basket of measures” to prevent a very difficult winter.
The SAGE group of experts suggests “a basket of measures” which could keep COVID-19 under control if enacted early enough by the government.
Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2: The world should face the reality
Hand washing and maintaining social distance are the main measures recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to avoid contracting COVID-19. U…
Antivaccine activists use a government database on side effects to scare the public
Successful reporting system helps flag real problems but is being twisted in COVID-19 era

Petition: Offer the Covid-19 vaccine to under 18s
Now that all adults are being offered the vaccine, most youth have so far remained unvaccinated, and unsurprisingly, the delta variant seems to disproportionately affect youth (likely as they are unvaccinated), significantly more than adults. The UK Government must take action to address this.
Petition: Funding for ventilation in all school/college/uni classrooms
As a parent, it has become of increasing concern that the Government has not yet committed to funding increased ventilation in classrooms, in the form of approved HEPA air filter systems/air purifiers.This petition is to ask the Government to immediately fund these in schools/colleges/unis.






🧬 Variants News (Sequencing as of 15 September 2021)

#DeltaAY4

📈 83,675 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 75.2% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaVariant

📈 17,136
↘️ 15.4%

#DeltaAY5

📈 3,875
↘️ 3.48%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %





Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants.






📈 UK COVID-19 data (reported on 15 September 2021)

CASES 🦠
📈 30,597 in 24h
↘️ -21.5% vs last week
📉 222,405 in 7 days
↘️ -18.4%
📉 967,955 in 28 days
↗️ +1.2%
📉 331.5 per 100k
↘️ -18.4%

King’s College ESTIMATE 🦠
📈 47,277 daily cases

HOSPITALISATIONS 🏥
📉 836 in 24h
↘️ -11.2%
📉 6,930 in 7 days
↗️ +2.5%

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL 🏥
📈 8,340 in 24h
↗️ +4.9%

PATIENTS IN ICU BEDS 🛏️
📈 1,060 in 24h
↗️ +1.2%

DEATHS 🕯️
📈 201 in 24h
↗️ +5.2%
📈 973 in 7 days
↗️ +4.4%
📈 3,387 in 28 days – Highest since 29 March
↗️ +10.4%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ⏸️ Unchanged figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %



LAST 28 DAYS 🗓️

🦠 967,955 new cases
🕯️ 3,387 deaths – Highest 28-day total since 29 March


DAYS SINCE 🗓️

🦠 594 days since the first reported UK case
🕯️ 558 days since the first reported UK death


TOTALS 🧮
🦠 7,312,683 positive cases so far to date (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
🕯️ 134,647 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result
🕯️ 157,669 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes– Registered up to Friday 3 September 2021


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 15 September 2021.






💉 Vaccination UK (up to and including 13 September 2021)

💉48,480,178 first doses
📈 91.66% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 89.19% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 72.27% of total UK population

💉44,170,373 second doses
📈 83.51% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 81.26% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 65.85% of total UK population

Estimates suggest that around 12 million children in the UK – aged 15 and below – remain unvaccinated.

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 14 September 2021.


In summary, as of 13 September 2021:

  • 65.85% of the total UK population (all ages) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 81.26% of the UK population (aged 16 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 83.51% of the UK population (aged 18 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses)

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

● Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
● Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
● Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
● Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

(Source ▪ ONS)






Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 10 September 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 0.9 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: -1% to +1% per day
  • An R value between 0.9 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 9 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between -1% and +1% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat, shrinking by up to 1% every day or growing by up to 1% every day. (These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 from 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.)

Population testing positive for COVID-19:

According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey data, COVID-19 infections remained level in England in the week ending 3 September. In Scotland, however, infections increased and were the highest the ONS recorded so far (the Infection Survey began to cover Scotland in September 2020). During the same period, in Northern Ireland, the trend in infections was uncertain, while in Wales, infections increased.






Stringency Index:

The Stringency Index records the strictness of government policies across the world. It is a composite measure of nine Covid response metrics: school closures, workplace closures, cancellation of public events, restrictions on public gatherings, closures of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, restrictions on internal movements, and international travel controls.











📰 #COVID19 in #TomorrowsPapersToday

Read more front pages every day in PMP Magazine.

The Times








📚 Data Sources:








📈 Full Daily UK #COVID19 Charts & Comments via #TodayInCovid: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/tag/uk-covid-19-chart/

🧬 Full #Variants Sequencing Data: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/uk-covid-19-variant-updates/

🦠 Everything #COVID19: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/covid19/

🗃️ Sources: @CovidGenomicsUK | @PHE_uk | @ONS

🧮 Special thanks: @JoePajak & #NHS




— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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