158 deaths due to Covid-19 and 26,911 new coronavirus infections reported in 24 hours in the UK. 964 deaths in 7 days – on average 138 deaths each day that would represent 50,266 deaths annually. It is time to implement a new plan.


First published in September 2021.









📆 #TodayInCOVID
Summary 16-Sep-2021


(Note: Does not include data from Scotland)

🦠 CASES
26,911 in 24h ↘️
211,303 in 7 days ↘️
958,924 in 28 days ↘️
315 per 100k ↘️
▪  7,339,009 so far

🏥 HOSPITAL
836 admissions in 24h ↔️
6,932 in 7 days ↔️
8,339 patients ↔️
1,081 in ICU beds ↗️

🕯️ DEATHS
158 in 24h ↘️
964 in 7 days ↘️
3,432 in 28 days ↗️️
157,669 so far

💉 VACCINATION
44.2m received two doses
65.93% of the UK population received two doses

®️ 0.91.1 in England ↔️

LABELS:
↗️ Increasing | ↘️ Decreasing | ↔️ Unchanged








Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that a further 158 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19, while transmission of the virus continues to be of concern, with a further 26,911 new infections reported in the last 24 hours.

  • The total number of coronavirus infections reported in the last 7 days was 211,303, while in the last 28 days 958,924 infections have been reported*.
  • 964 deaths due to coronavirus have been reported in the last 7 days. This equates on average to around 138 deaths each of the past 7 days. If this was to be the “new normal” for daily deaths caused by Covid-19, then annually this would equate to around 50,266 deaths. What is normal about that? What is acceptable about this potential level of death? The vaccination programme has had a very positive impact, but what will bring down the level of infections given where we now are?
  • Latest health care data indicate that there were 836 Covid-19 hospital admissions reported on 11 September 2021.
  • 8,339 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds as of 15 September 2021.
  • 1,081 patients are requiring intensive care support as of 15 September 2021 (the highest number since 13 March 2021) – all three measures are an increasing concern for our over-stretched NHS.

(*) Official UK dashboard note: Because of a technical issue affecting the availability of data, there has been no update to cases, testing and vaccinations for Scotland. Therefore newly reported numbers for the UK include England, Northern Ireland and Wales only.

Note: It is likely, given recent data, that Scotland will have reported between 5,000 and 6,000 new cases.


SO FAR:

  • 595 days since the first infection due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus was reported in Britain.
  • 559 days since the first reported death.
  • Coronavirus has now been responsible for infecting over 7.3 million people (7,339,009 reported, to be precise) in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data)
  • The virus is responsible for at least 134,805 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data currently indicate there have been 157,669 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 3 September 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

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  • Autumn and winter plan 2021 – ENGLAND

The government has set out its COVID-19 autumn and winter plan.

  • First dose vaccinations for young people – UK WIDE

Young people aged 12 to 15 will soon be offered a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

  • Booster vaccine dose for people most at risk from COVID-19 – UK WIDE

People aged 50 years and over, care home residents, frontline health and social care workers, and those aged 16 to 49 years with specific underlying health conditions will be offered a booster vaccine dose.






Pixabay


  • Antibodies rising sharply among 16 to 24-year-olds

The percentage of young adults testing positive for antibodies to COVID-19 is rising steadily across all UK nations, according to the ONS.

The Coronavirus Infection Survey data show the estimated percentage of adults aged 25 to 34 who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine ranged from 86.9% to 91.4% - a sharp increase since the end of May.

A similar increase can be seen for those aged 16 to 24 since June with between 70.8% and 78.8% reporting having had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK in the week beginning 23 August 2021.







Cabinet meeting. | Number 10


  • Winter is already here

Ministers must open their eyes, look at the data and realise that now is the time to act. The NHS is at risk of being completely overwhelmed. There are signs of this happening in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and many other areas that report high activity.

One statistic to highlight from today's data: 3,432 deaths in 28 days – on average equivalent to around 123 deaths reported each of those days.

One more observation: Cases, hospitalisations, and deaths are all higher than this time last year.

Dale Gardiner, an intensive care doctor in the English Midlands, told the bmj, “People are worried about the winter, but, honestly, winter is already here for the NHS.”

Sadly, evidence suggests he is right.


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Ministers to cut ‘red list’ countries by up to half to simplify England’s travel rules
Further change will see amber tier removed to make clearer distinction between government’s ‘go’ and ‘no go’ destinations
A&E patients in Greater Manchester at same level as winter 2019
The number of patients waiting longer than four hours to be seen at A&E has also hit a record high
COVID-19: ‘No capacity’ - Northern Ireland pleads for armed forces to help ‘exhausted’ hospital staff with patients
A decision is expected to be made next week after the Ministry of Defence received a request for medics to help support Belfast City Hospital and Ulster Hospital throughout October.
First Covid booster jabs given to NHS staff
Hospitals in England and Wales can now start vaccinating healthcare workers with a booster dose.
Scientists consider 2nd Covid vaccine dose for kids as booster campaign begins
Scientists are now looking at whether children need a second dose of vaccine as the booster campaign kicked off and after first doses of the Pfizer vaccine were approved for over-12s earlier this week

Petition: Offer the Covid-19 vaccine to under 18s
Now that all adults are being offered the vaccine, most youth have so far remained unvaccinated, and unsurprisingly, the delta variant seems to disproportionately affect youth (likely as they are unvaccinated), significantly more than adults. The UK Government must take action to address this.
Petition: Funding for ventilation in all school/college/uni classrooms
As a parent, it has become of increasing concern that the Government has not yet committed to funding increased ventilation in classrooms, in the form of approved HEPA air filter systems/air purifiers.This petition is to ask the Government to immediately fund these in schools/colleges/unis.






🧬 Variants News (Sequencing as of 16 September 2021)

#DeltaAY4

📈 87,624 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 75.37% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaVariant

📈 17,729
↘️ 15.25%

#DeltaAY5

📈 4,039
↘️ 3.47%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %





Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants.






📈 UK COVID-19 data (reported on 16 September 2021)

CASES 🦠

(Note: Does not include data from Scotland)

📉 26,911 in 24h
↘️ -29.2% vs last week
📉 211,303 in 7 days
↘️ -22.4%
📉 958,924 in 28 days
↘️ -0.3%
📉 315 per 100k
↘️ -22.4%

King’s College ESTIMATE 🦠
📈 47,293 daily cases

HOSPITALISATIONS 🏥
📉 836 in 24h – Unchanged
↘️ -11.2%
📉 6,932 in 7 days – Unchanged
↗️ +2.5%

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL 🏥
📈 8,339 in 24h – Unchanged
↗️ +2.7%

PATIENTS IN ICU BEDS 🛏️
📈 1,081 in 24h – Highest since 14 March
↗️ +2.0%

DEATHS 🕯️
📈 158 in 24h
↘️ -5.4%
📉 964 in 7 days
↗️ +4.7%
📈 3,432 in 28 days – Highest since 29 March
↗️ +9.2%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ⏸️ Unchanged figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %



LAST 28 DAYS 🗓️

🦠 958,924 new cases (no data reported for Scotland today)
🕯️ 3,432 deaths – Highest 28-day total since 29 March


DAYS SINCE 🗓️

🦠 595 days since the first reported UK case
🕯️ 559 days since the first reported UK death


TOTALS 🧮
🦠 7,339,009 positive cases so far to date (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
🕯️ 134,805 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result
🕯️ 157,669 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes– Registered up to Friday 3 September 2021


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 16 September 2021.






💉 Vaccination UK (up to and including 15 September 2021)

💉48,503,181 first doses
📈 91.71% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 89.24% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 72.31% of total UK population

💉44,229,777 second doses
📈 83.63% of UK adults (aged 18+)
📈 81.37% of UK population (aged 16+)
📈 65.93% of total UK population

Estimates suggest that around 12 million children in the UK – aged 15 and below – remain unvaccinated.

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 15 September 2021.


In summary, as of 15 September 2021:

  • 65.93% of the total UK population (all ages) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 81.37% of the UK population (aged 16 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 83.63% of the UK population (aged 18 and above) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses)

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

● Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
● Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
● Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
● Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

(Source ▪ ONS)






Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 10 September 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 0.9 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: -1% to +1% per day
  • An R value between 0.9 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 9 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between -1% and +1% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat, shrinking by up to 1% every day or growing by up to 1% every day. (These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 from 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.)

Population testing positive for COVID-19:

According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey data, COVID-19 infections remained level in England in the week ending 3 September. In Scotland, however, infections increased and were the highest the ONS recorded so far (the Infection Survey began to cover Scotland in September 2020). During the same period, in Northern Ireland, the trend in infections was uncertain, while in Wales, infections increased.






Stringency Index:

The Stringency Index records the strictness of government policies across the world. It is a composite measure of nine Covid response metrics: school closures, workplace closures, cancellation of public events, restrictions on public gatherings, closures of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, restrictions on internal movements, and international travel controls.











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📚 Data Sources:








📈 Full Daily UK #COVID19 Charts & Comments via #TodayInCovid: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/tag/uk-covid-19-chart/

🧬 Full #Variants Sequencing Data: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/uk-covid-19-variant-updates/

🦠 Everything #COVID19: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/covid19/

🗃️ Sources: @CovidGenomicsUK | @PHE_uk | @ONS

🧮 Special thanks: @JoePajak & #NHS




— AUTHORS —

Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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