Today’s data in the UK sadly indicate that 122 new deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours due to Covid-19 and 40,701 new infections in the last 24 hours – the highest daily number since 6 September. Is this really the time to open the UK borders to increased foreign travel?


First published in October 2021.









📆 #TodayInCOVID
Summary 7-Oct-2021


🦠 CASES
▪ 40,701 in 24h ↗️
▪ 245,815 in 7 days ↗️
▪ 934,555 in 28 days ↗️
▪ 366.4 per 100k ↗️

🏥 HOSPITAL
▪ 681 admissions in 24h ↗️
▪ 4,982 in 7 days ↗️
▪ 6,817 patients ↘️️
▪ 807 in ICU beds ↗️

🕯️ DEATHS
▪ 122 in 24h ↘️
▪ 755 in 7 days ↘️
▪ 3,576 in 28 days ↘️️

💉 VACCINATION
▪ 45.0m received 2 doses
▪ 67.20% of the UK population received 2 doses

®️ R NUMBER
▪ 0.8 - 1.1 in England ↗️

🌡️ LONG COVID
▪ 1,100,000 estimated cases ↗️

LABELS:
↗️ Increasing | ↘️ Decreasing | ↔️ Unchanged









  • The total number of coronavirus infections reported in the last 7 days was 245,815 while in the last 28 days 934,555 infections have been reported.
  • 755 deaths due to coronavirus have been reported in the last 7 days. This equates on average to around 108 deaths each of the past 7 days. If this was to be the “new normal” for daily deaths caused by Covid-19, then annually this would equate to around 39,368 deaths. What is normal about that? What is acceptable about this potential level of death? The vaccination programme has had a very positive impact, but what will bring down the level of infections given where we now are?
  • Latest health care data indicate that there were 681 Covid-19 hospital admissions reported on 3 October 2021.
  • 6,817 patients suffering from Covid-19 are currently occupying hospital beds as of 6 October 2021.
  • 807 patients are requiring intensive care support as of 6 October 2021 – all three measures are an increasing concern for our over-stretched NHS.

SO FAR:

  • 616 days since the first infection due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus was reported in Britain (31 January 2020).
  • 580 days since the first reported death (7 March 2020).
  • Coronavirus has now been responsible for infecting over 8 million people (8,046,390 reported, to be precise) in the UK (according to the official reported positive cases data)
  • In this time, the virus has been responsible for at least 137,417 deaths (within 28 days of first positive test result). Official data also currently indicate there have been 160,824 deaths in total, where the deceased person’s death certificate mentioned COVID-19 as one of the causes, registered up to Friday 24 September 2021, according to Public Health England (PHE).

Note: The data for deaths attributed to COVID-19 – each following a reported positive test result for COVID-19 within 28 days of their death.

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  • New rules for international travel – UK WIDE

The traffic light system for travel no longer applies. Instead, there is a single red list and the rest of the world. If you’re travelling to the UK from a non-red list country or territory and are eligible under fully vaccinated rules, you only need to take a test on day 2 after you arrive.

  • Autumn and winter plan 2021 – ENGLAND

The government has set out its COVID-19 autumn and winter plan.

  • Vaccine certification required for late-night venues and large events – SCOTLAND

From 1 October, you need to show proof that you are fully vaccinated using either the NHS Scotland COVID Status app, a paper copy of your vaccination record, or proof that you’re exempt, to enter late-night venues and large events. (Find out more on GOV.SCOT.)

  • NHS COVID Pass required for nightclubs and large events – WALES

From 11 October, you need to show proof that you are fully vaccinated or have a recent negative rapid lateral flow test using NHS COVID Pass to attend nightclubs and large events. (Find out more on GOV.WALES.)

  • Boosters – UK WIDE

Booster vaccine doses will be available on the NHS for people most at risk from COVID-19 who have had a second dose of a vaccine at least 6 months ago.

You can book your COVID-19 booster vaccine dose online if you are either:
- a frontline health or social care worker
- aged 50 and over
- aged 16 and over with a health condition that puts you at high risk from COVID-19

If you are not a frontline health or social care worker, please wait to be contacted by the NHS before booking your booster dose.






Pixabay


  • An estimated 1.1 million in the UK experiencing long COVID

“An estimated 1.1 million people living in private households in the UK (1.7% of the population) were experiencing self-reported “long COVID” (symptoms persisting for more than four weeks after the first suspected COVID-19 infection that were not explained by something else) as of 5 September 2021,” according to the ONS.

This figure is up from 970,000 (1.5%) as of 1 August 2021.








UK COVID-19 case numbers are rising. Over one million infection in the last month and over eight million infections reported since day 1 of the pandemic.

1/8 of all UK coronavirus infections were reported in the last month. In essence, despite the wonderful vaccines, 12.5% of all infections were reported in most recent 5% of the pandemic.

What is the government doing?


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Petition: Funding for ventilation in all school/college/uni classrooms
As a parent, it has become of increasing concern that the Government has not yet committed to funding increased ventilation in classrooms, in the form of approved HEPA air filter systems/air purifiers.This petition is to ask the Government to immediately fund these in schools/colleges/unis.






🧬 Variants News (Sequencing as of 7 October 2021)

#DeltaAY4

📈 91,031 sequenced cases in the last 28 days
↗️ 80.58% of all sequenced cases

#DeltaVariant

📈 11,917
↘️ 10.55%

#DeltaAY5

📈 3,900
↘️ 3.45%


LABELS:
↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %







Find out more about the latest data on COVID-19 variants.






📈 UK COVID-19 data (reported on 7 October 2021)

CASES 🦠
📈 40,701 in 24h – Highest since 6 September
↗️ +11.6% vs last week
📈 245,815 in 7 days
↘️ -0.2%
📈 934,555 in 28 days
↘️ -2.8%
📈 366.4 per 100k
↘️ -2.0%

King’s College ESTIMATE 🦠
📈 73,275 daily cases

HOSPITALISATIONS 🏥
📈 681 in 24h – Latest update: 3 Oct
↗️ +2.9%
📈 4,982 in 7 days – Latest update: 3 Oct
↘️ -3.4%

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL 🏥
📉 6,817 in 24h
↘️ -1.3%

PATIENTS IN ICU BEDS 🛏️
📈 807 in 24h
↘️ -3.1%

DEATHS 🕯️
📉 122 in 24h
↘️ -10.9%
📉 755 in 7 days
↘️ -12.1%
📉 3,576 in 28 days
↘️ -5.5%


LABELS:
📈 Increasing figure | 📉 Decreasing figure | ⏸️ Unchanged figure | ↗️ Increasing % | ↘️ Decreasing % | ↔️ Unchanged %



LAST 28 DAYS 🗓️

🦠 934,555 new cases
🕯️ 3,576 deaths


DAYS SINCE 🗓️

🦠 616 days since the first reported UK case
🕯️ 580 days since the first reported UK death


TOTALS 🧮
🦠 8,046,390 positive cases so far to date (recorded) – Since the first case was reported at the end of January 2020
🕯️ 137,417 deaths so far – Number recorded within 28 days of first positive test result
🕯️ 160,824 total deaths – Total number of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 as one of the causes– Registered up to Friday 24 September 2021


7-Day UK COVID-19 Data – Graph showing key data as trendlines as of 7 October 2021.






💉 Vaccination UK (up to and including 6 October 2021)

💉49,068,705 first doses
📈 85.32% of UK population (aged 12+)
📈 73.15% of total UK population

💉45,078,529 second doses
📈 78.39% of UK population (aged 12+)
📈 67.20% of total UK population

(*Note: The vaccination percentages have been calculated on the basis that the total population aged 12 and above forms the number eligible in theory for vaccination in that age range. This has in effect been validated today by the official dashboard data.)


Approximately 3 million children in the UK aged 12-15 years old are now eligible to be vaccinated.

Estimates suggest that around 9 million children in the UK – aged 12 and below – remain unvaccinated.

People vaccinated in the UK up to and including 6 October 2021.


In summary, as of 6 October 2021, it is estimated that:

  • 67.20% of the total UK population (of all ages) had received two doses of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).
  • 85.32% of the UK population (aged 12 and above) had received one dose of a vaccine against the virus (one that for the vaccines currently being used requires 2 doses).

This data has been cross-referenced with the official data from the UK dashboard as of 7 October 2021.

PMP Xtra

Total UK population: 67,081,234 (last year: 66,796,800), via ONS (subject to changes in population over the year). These figures were updated on 25 June 2021.

● Adult population (aged 18 and above) = 52,890,044 (last year: 52,673,433)
● Population aged 16 and above = 54,353,665 (last year: 54,098,971)
● Population aged 11 and above = 58,325,411 (last year: 57,975,918)
● Population aged 5 and above = 63,298,904 (last year: 62,939,544)

(Source ▪ ONS)






■ Estimated ®️ number: (report as of 1 October 2021)

  • Latest R range for England 0.8 to 1.1
  • Latest growth rate range for England: -3% to +1% per day
  • An R value between 0.8 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 11 other people. A growth rate of between -3% and +1% means that the number of new infections could be broadly flat, shrinking by up to 3% every day or growing by up to 1% every day. (These estimates represent the transmission of COVID-19 from 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.)

■ Population testing positive for COVID-19:

According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 Infection Survey data, infection rates increased in England and Wales but decreased in Scotland in the week ending 25 September 2021. The trend was uncertain in Northern Ireland.






■ Stringency Index:

The Stringency Index records the strictness of government policies across the world. It is a composite measure of nine Covid response metrics: school closures, workplace closures, cancellation of public events, restrictions on public gatherings, closures of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, restrictions on internal movements, and international travel controls.




PMP Magazine







📚 Data Sources:








📈 Full Daily UK #COVID19 Charts & Comments via #TodayInCovid: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/tag/uk-covid-19-chart/

🧬 Full #Variants Sequencing Data: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/uk-covid-19-variant-updates/

🦠 Everything #COVID19: https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/covid19/

🗃️ Sources: @CovidGenomicsUK | @PHE_uk | @ONS

🧮 Special thanks: @JoePajak & #NHS




— AUTHORS —

▫ Dr Joe Pajak, PhD physical scientist, research & development, governor NHS FT hospital.
▫ J.N. PAQUET, Author & Journalist, Editor of PMP Magazine.


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